The latest World Trade Organization (WTO) Goods Trade Barometer indicates that global goods trade continued to expand at a moderate pace in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain due to potential shifts in trade policy.
The Goods Trade Barometer, a composite leading indicator for world trade, provides real-time insights into the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values above 100 signal above-trend trade volumes, while values below 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below the trend or is likely to do so soon.
The most recent barometer reading of 102.7, represented by the blue line, is above both the quarterly trade volume index (black line) and the baseline value of 100. This suggests that trade will continue to grow steadily through the fourth quarter. However, rising economic uncertainty, including potential trade policy shifts, clouds the outlook.
According to the WTO’s trade forecast released on October 10, trade volume growth for the entirety of 2024 is expected to be around 2.7%, with growth in 2025 projected to reach 3.0%. The latest forecast shows only modest changes at the global level compared to the previous forecast in April, though there were notable regional revisions.
In the first half of 2024, exports from Asian economies and imports from North American countries grew faster than expected. Conversely, European trade flows continued to decline on both the export and import sides, weighing down global trade growth. The next WTO trade forecast will be issued in April 2025.
