The global airline industry is projected to achieve a net profit margin of $36.6 billion in 2025, marking a 3.6% increase from $31.5 billion in 2024, despite ongoing cost and supply chain challenges, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
IATA forecasts the average net profit per passenger to be $7 in 2025, which is below the $7.9 peak in 2023 but an improvement from $6.4 in 2024. The operating profit for 2025 is expected to reach $67.5 billion, resulting in a net operating margin of 6.7%, up from the anticipated 6.4% in 2024.
The return on invested capital (ROIC) for the global industry is projected to be 6.8% in 2025. Although this is an improvement from the 2024 ROIC of 6.6%, the returns at the global level remain below the weighted average cost of capital. ROIC is strongest for airlines in Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America, where it exceeds the cost of capital.
Total industry revenues are expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, reaching $1.007 trillion, a 4.4% increase from 2024. Expenses are projected to grow by 4.0% to $940 billion. Passenger numbers are anticipated to hit 5.2 billion in 2025, a 6.7% rise compared to 2024, marking the first time the number of passengers exceeds five billion.
“We’re expecting airlines to deliver a global profit of $36.6 billion in 2025. This will be hard-earned as airlines take advantage of lower oil prices while keeping load factors above 83%, tightly controlling costs, investing in decarbonization, and managing the return to more normal growth levels following the extraordinary pandemic recovery,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh.
“All these efforts will help to mitigate several drags on profitability which are outside of airlines’ control, namely persistent supply chain challenges, infrastructure deficiencies, onerous regulation, and a rising tax burden,” Walsh added.
Walsh also highlighted that industry revenues are expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2025. “It’s important to put that into perspective. A trillion dollars is almost 1% of the global economy, making airlines a strategically important industry. However, airlines carry $940 billion in costs, not to mention interest and taxes, retaining a net profit margin of just 3.6%,” he said.
“The buffer between profit and loss, even in the good year we are expecting in 2025, is just $7 per passenger. With margins that thin, airlines must continue to watch every cost and insist on similar efficiency across the supply chain—especially from our monopoly infrastructure suppliers who often let us down on performance and efficiency,” Walsh emphasized.
IATA highlighted the broad benefits of growing connectivity. The most recent estimates show that airline employment is expected to grow to 3.3 million in 2025. Airlines are the core of a global aviation value chain that employs 86.5 million people and generates $4.1 trillion in economic impact, accounting for 3.9% of global GDP (2023). Connectivity is an economic catalyst for growth in nearly all industries.
“Looking at 2025, for the first time, traveler numbers will exceed five billion and the number of flights will reach 40 million. This growth means that aviation connectivity will be creating and supporting jobs across the global economy. The most obvious are the hospitality and retail sectors, which will gear up to meet the needs of a growing number of customers,” said Walsh.
“But almost every business benefits from the connectivity that air transport provides, making it easier to meet customers, receive supplies, or transport products. On top of this, growth in aviation also contributes to achieving almost all the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs),” Walsh concluded.
