Long transit times alone are not necessarily problematic for global importers—what causes the real disruption is when actual transit times deviate from scheduled expectations, according to new findings from leading maritime data and analysis firm Sea-Intelligence (SI).
In issue 714 of its Sunday Spotlight, SI emphasized that variability, rather than duration, poses the greatest challenge for operational planning. Whether actual transit times are shorter or longer than scheduled, the resulting unpredictability can lead to costly issues, such as detention and demurrage charges or downstream supply chain delays.
“Importers can plan for long lead times,” Sea-Intelligence noted. “But when the actual transit time diverges from the scheduled time, especially unpredictably, it becomes a serious problem for supply chain planning.”
To visualize and measure this volatility, SI analyzed the Interquartile Range (IQR) of transit time deviations—an indicator that captures the middle 50% of deviations. A smaller IQR reflects tighter clustering and greater predictability, while a larger IQR indicates a wider range of deviation even within typical performance, making planning more complex.
“From a supply chain perspective, a lower IQR offers greater predictability and reduces risk in planning cycles,” SI stated.
In the study, SI assessed IQRs for transit time deviations across six major trade lanes to South America. Among them:
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Asia to West Coast South America (Asia-WCSA) exhibited the smallest IQR, at just 1.01 days. This narrow range—from 1.95 to 3.05 days—indicates a high degree of reliability and predictability for importers on this route.
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East Coast South America to Northern Europe (ECSA-NEUR) recorded the largest IQR, at 2.69 days, with deviations ranging from 4.33 to 7.02 days. This signifies a wider spread in transit times, making it the least predictable route analyzed. SI also noted that this lane had the highest median transit time deviation, amplifying its operational unpredictability.
The findings reinforce that in maritime logistics, consistency matters more than speed. Importers and supply chain professionals are encouraged to consider IQR as a key metric when evaluating trade lane performance.
For further insights and detailed route analysis, subscribers can access the full report in Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, issue 714.
Sea-Intelligence is a leading provider of analytical insight and data-driven intelligence to the global container shipping industry. With deep expertise in maritime supply chains, Sea-Intelligence supports stakeholders with actionable data and independent analysis.
