Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) has seen a dramatic increase of 59% over the last four weeks, driven by a resumption of US-bound traffic following President Donald Trump’s “pause” on import tariffs. This policy shift has reversed an earlier collapse in Transpacific shipping volumes, leading to a sudden, short-term strengthening in the global container shipping market’s supply-demand balance.
In the past week alone, freight rates from Shanghai to New York rose by 2% to $7,285 per 40ft container, marking a substantial 67% increase since May 15th. Similarly, spot rates to Los Angeles climbed 1% in the past week and a remarkable 89% over the last four weeks. Despite this surge, prices on the Transpacific eastbound route only changed marginally, cushioned by a fresh injection of capacity.
In contrast, freight rates for routes from Shanghai to Europe remained stable. Rates to Rotterdam held steady at $2,837 per 40ft container, and to Genoa at $4,054 per 40ft container in the past week.
This recent strengthening in rates marks a significant reversal of the declining trend observed since January. However, the future remains uncertain. Drewry’s Container Forecaster anticipates a weakening of the supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, which is expected to lead to a decline in spot rates. The precise timing and volatility of these changes will largely depend on the outcomes of ongoing legal challenges to Trump’s tariffs and potential capacity shifts stemming from the introduction of US penalties on Chinese ships.
