The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) has fallen for the fourth consecutive week, dropping by 5% this week, signaling a significant shift in global freight dynamics. This sustained decline is primarily attributed to subdued demand for US-bound cargo, indicating that the recent surge in US imports – a temporary boost following a halt on higher US tariffs – may not have the lasting impact initially anticipated.
The latest data reveals notable decreases in key trade lanes. Freight rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles saw an 8% drop this past week, settling at $2,931 per 40ft container. Despite this recent dip, spot rates on this route remain 8% higher than nine weeks ago (May 8). Similarly, the Shanghai to New York route experienced a 5% weekly decrease to $4,839 per 40ft container, yet it has still gained a substantial 33% over the last nine weeks.
Beyond the trans-Pacific routes, rates from Shanghai to Genoa decreased by 7% to $3,491 per 40ft container, while those from Shanghai to Rotterdam saw a 2% reduction, reaching $3,384 per 40ft container.
Drewry anticipates that spot rates will continue their downward trend in the coming week, driven by an excess of shipping capacity and persistent weak demand across various routes. Looking further ahead, Drewry’s Container Forecaster predicts a further weakening of the supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, which is expected to exert continued downward pressure on spot rates.
The precise trajectory and timing of future rate changes, however, remain subject to significant uncertainties. These include potential future tariff policies from the US administration and the impact of capacity adjustments stemming from the introduction of US penalties on Chinese ships.
