The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) has recorded its fifth consecutive weekly decline, falling by 2.6% this week. This sustained decrease suggests a fading impact of the higher US tariffs announced in April, after an initial period of market volatility.
Following the tariff announcement, container spot rates experienced a delayed reaction, beginning to climb in May and peaking in the first week of June. However, this trend has since reversed, with rates consistently falling since mid-June, indicating that the initial market surge was not sustainable.
Transpacific spot rates saw further declines this week. Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell by 4% to $2,817 per forty-foot equivalent unit (feu), while rates from Shanghai to New York dropped by 6% to $4,539/feu. Despite these recent drops, rates on both lanes remain above levels observed 10 weeks ago when tariff concerns first began to drive prices upward. Specifically, Shanghai to Los Angeles rates are still 4% higher, and Shanghai to New York rates are 24% higher than on May 8th.
Drewry anticipates that spot rates on this trade lane will continue to decline due to weakening demand.
Looking ahead, Drewry’s Container Forecaster projects a further weakening of the supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, which is expected to lead to continued declines in spot rates. The precise volatility and timing of future rate changes will be influenced by potential future tariff decisions and any capacity shifts resulting from the introduction of US penalties on Chinese ships, both of which remain uncertain.
