Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) has shown signs of stabilization, declining by only 1% this week, following a period of significant volatility. The market, which saw rates surge from May to early June in anticipation of new U.S. tariffs, experienced a steep decline until mid-July. The current slowdown in the rate of decrease indicates that the market is regaining a more predictable rhythm.
The initial unpredictability in container rates began with the announcement of U.S. tariffs in April. This led to a rush to ship goods, causing rates to climb sharply. Following the tariff-driven surge, the market corrected with a heavy decline that has recently lost momentum. The WCI’s minor dip this week is a key indicator of this new stability.
Transpacific spot rates were down this week as the pre-tariff rush has concluded. Rates on the Shanghai–Los Angeles route fell 2% to $2,632 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), while rates on the Shanghai–New York route also slid 2% to $4,135/feu. In response to the reduced demand, shipping lines are actively managing capacity by canceling sailings across the Pacific. Drewry expects this trend to continue, keeping spot rates less volatile in the coming weeks.
Looking ahead, Drewry’s Container Forecaster anticipates that the supply-demand balance will weaken again in the second half of 2025, which is likely to cause spot rates to contract. The degree and timing of future rate changes will depend heavily on upcoming U.S. tariff decisions and potential penalties on Chinese ships, both of which remain uncertain.
