Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) has continued its downward trend, declining for the eleventh consecutive week, according to the latest data released by Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. The firm anticipates this decline will persist in the coming weeks as market conditions remain volatile.
The current instability in container rates follows a period of unpredictability that began with the announcement of new US tariffs in April. This initially led to a surge in rates from May through early June as retailers front-loaded shipments to beat the tariff deadlines. However, rates subsequently reversed course, plunging through mid-July and continuing their steady descent to the present day.
Transpacific Rates Fall as Early Peak Season Concludes
Spot rates on the Trans-Pacific trade lane have continued to weaken. This week, rates on the Shanghai–Los Angeles route fell 3% to $2,332 per 40ft container, while Shanghai–New York rates saw a 5% reduction, settling at $3,291 per 40ft container.
“The phase of accelerated purchasing by US retailers, which induced an early peak season, has now ended,” said [Spokesperson Name, Title] at Drewry. “In response to a decelerating US economy and increased tariff costs, retailers are now scaling back on their procurement, albeit at a measured pace. We therefore expect rates on this trade lane to continue declining in the near term.”
Asia–Europe Rates Affected by Vessel Overcapacity
Rates on the Asia–Europe trade lane also experienced a significant drop this week. Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam declined 10% to $2,661 per 40ft container, and the Shanghai–Genoa route slid 5% to $2,842 per 40ft container.
Despite healthy underlying demand and persistent port delays in Europe, a growing surplus of vessel capacity has been the primary factor pushing down spot rates on this route. Drewry forecasts a further decline in rates in the coming weeks as this imbalance between supply and demand persists.
Outlook Remains Uncertain Amid Geopolitical Factors
Looking ahead, Drewry’s Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken further in the second half of 2025, which will cause spot rates to continue their contraction. The timing and intensity of future rate changes remain highly uncertain and are dependent on two key factors: potential future tariffs from the Trump administration and any capacity changes resulting from the introduction of US penalties on Chinese ships.
