After 11 consecutive weeks of decline, Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) has stabilized this week, a direct result of opposing rate trends across major trade lanes. A significant surge in Transpacific rates was counterbalanced by a sharp drop in Asia-Europe rates, leading to a steady overall index.
The WCI’s stabilization follows a period of decline that saw transpacific spot rates fall for 11 weeks straight. However, recent General Rate Increase (GRI) announcements by several carriers have reversed this trend. Spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles increased by 8% to $2,522 per 40ft container (feu), while rates from Shanghai to New York saw a substantial 12% jump to $3,677 per feu. Despite the upcoming Golden Week holiday in China, Drewry does not expect these increases to be sustainable without further capacity cuts. As a result, the firm forecasts rates in this lane to remain stable in the short term.
Conversely, spot rates on the Asia-Europe trade lane fell this week. Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam were down 10% to $2,385/feu, and rates from Shanghai to Genoa slid 7% to $2,653/feu. This decline, despite healthy demand and port delays in Europe, is attributed to a growing surplus of vessel capacity. Drewry predicts a continued softening of spot rates in the coming weeks.
Looking ahead, Drewry’s Container Forecaster anticipates that the supply-demand balance will weaken again in the second half of 2025, leading to an overall contraction in spot rates. The timing and volatility of future rate changes are uncertain and will be heavily influenced by external factors, including potential future tariffs from the US and capacity changes linked to any new penalties on Chinese vessels.
