A new analysis of global airline capacity by OAG reveals a 2.4% year-on-year growth in September, with notable shifts in airline and regional performance. The total scheduled capacity for the month is projected to be 515.1 million seats, a decrease from the peak in July.
Airline Performance: Growth Leaders and Shifting Fortunes
Among the world’s top 20 airlines, United Airlines stands out as the leader in frequency additions, increasing its flight frequencies by 6,900 compared to September 2024. Delta Air Lines follows, adding 5,500 more frequencies. On the other hand, Turkish Airlines recorded the fastest growth rate, with a 7.9% increase in capacity, while Azul Airlines experienced the most significant reduction, down 9.2%. A change from earlier this year, IndiGo has now reduced its capacity by 0.5% compared to last year, contrasting with its strong growth in the first half of the year.
Regional Highlights: Pockets of Growth Amidst Declines
Regional trends are mixed, with some areas experiencing strong growth while others see a decline.
Growing Regions: Central Asia continues its strong performance, leading all IATA regions with a 12.1% growth rate. All four African regions also show positive growth, with Southern Africa topping the list at 10.3%.
Domestic Market Trends: The domestic market in Turkiye shows remarkable growth, up 16.2% with 740,000 more seats than last year. Other markets with significant growth include Canada (+7%), Australia (+7%), and Brazil (+5%).
Declining Markets: In a repeating trend, Indonesia’s domestic market saw the biggest fall, down 12.2%, while Japan, India, and the USA also experienced a contraction in capacity. The Caribbean region saw the most significant regional decline, with a 3.4% reduction in capacity, followed by Upper South America (-2.7%) and North America (-0.4%).
Key Takeaways
The data highlights a dynamic and evolving landscape for the global airline industry. While overall capacity is growing, the performance varies significantly by airline and region, indicating a period of strategic adjustments and shifting market dynamics.
United Airlines and Delta Air Lines are aggressively adding frequency.
Turkish Airlines is the fastest-growing major airline this month.
Indonesia’s domestic market continues to face significant challenges.
Central Asia and Africa are emerging as key growth regions.
