The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) has experienced its 13th consecutive week of decline, falling 3% to $2,044 per 40ft container. However, for the second week in a row, spot rates on major trade lanes are exhibiting opposing trends, according to the latest analysis by Drewry.
While freight rates on Transpacific trade lanes have risen, those on Asia–Europe have decreased. This divergence highlights a complex and volatile market driven by a variety of factors.
Transpacific Rates on the Rise
Spot rates on Transpacific trade lanes are increasing, primarily due to recent General Rate Increase (GRI) announcements by several carriers. Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles saw a 6% increase, reaching $2,678 per feu, while rates from Shanghai to New York rose 2% to $3,743 per feu.
Despite the upcoming Golden Week holidays in China, which typically impact shipping schedules, Drewry anticipates that these rate increases will be difficult to sustain without further cuts to shipping capacity. As a result, the firm expects Transpacific rates to remain stable in the coming weeks.
Asia–Europe Rates Fall Amid Softening Demand
In contrast, spot rates on Asia–Europe trade lanes have fallen this week. Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam declined by 10% to $2,143 per feu, and rates from Shanghai to Genoa dropped by 12% to $2,342 per feu. This decline is attributed to carriers struggling to match increased capacity—due to the introduction of new vessels—with softening demand.
With an increase in blank sailings anticipated ahead of China’s Golden Week holidays, which begin on October 1st, Drewry expects rates on this route to experience a slight decrease in the coming weeks.
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, Drewry’s Container Forecaster predicts that the supply-demand balance will weaken again in the second half of 2025, which will cause spot rates to contract. The timing and volatility of these rate changes will be influenced by uncertain factors, including potential future tariffs from the Trump administration and capacity shifts related to new US penalties on Chinese ships.
