Although the country’s exports continued to hold up as of June this year, a study by a local think tank UP Center for Integrative and Development Studies (UP CIDS) stated that the Philippines could lose USD2.2 billion in export revenues in the latter half of 2025 alone due to the new duties slapped by the United States.
With that, Filipino exporters forecast a grim outlook of the country’s exports to the U.S. until more resources are poured into the industry, Sergio Ortiz-Luis, Jr., president of Philippine Exporters Confederation (PhilExport) said.
Ortiz-Luis cited the study in his report during its 3rd Quarter General Membership Meeting as he described the complex world of exports amid challenges with the U.S. tariffs, shifting supply chains, and logistics costs.
Based on the UP CIDS study, most vulnerable sectors affected by the 19 percent tariff imposed on Philippine exports to the U.S. are labor-intensive exports such as garments, leathergoods, wearables, furniture and coconut-based products.
“We are thankful that at the moment, the market share of our high-value exports like electronics and semiconductor and machinery products have been preserved in this new U.S. tariff regime,” he said.
But he also said that the exports in the first semester may be due by the frontloading of shipments before the August 1 effectivity of the 19 percent reciprocal tariff imposed by the U.S. on Philippine exports to the U.S.
Thus, he warned, until more resources are poured into the export industry and micro small and medium enterprise (MSME) development and major breakthroughs happen from its push for market diversification programs, “We see a grim outlook on the U.S.market which accounts for about 20 percent of our total export performance.”
“This may also have a chilling effect on our total export revenues which is already driving us to recalibrate our export targets,” he added.
To counter this grim outlook, he said there is a strategic system built on five core drivers each backed by global evidence that needs to be revisited in the light of all the domestic and global developments emerging.
These are – product competitiveness, market intelligence, digital enablement, trade facilitation, and Public Private Partnership.
He added that the Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP) 2023–2028, which serves as the blueprint for positioning the Philippines as a globally competitive export hub, also focuses on scaling up strategic industry clusters, improving product competitiveness, and eliminating export bottlenecks.
