Global seaborne trade growth is expected to stall this year as maritime transport is facing growing uncertainty, volatility and higher costs, the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned.
In its Review of Maritime Transport 2025, released on September 24, said that after a firm growth in 2024, seaborne trade growth is expected to stall in 2025, with volumes rising just 0.5 percent.
Geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies and climate factors and regulatory developments are redrawing shipping routes and driving up costs.
Among the key findings, the study particularly cited volatile freight rates. Disruptions such as the Red Sea rerouting in 2024 and mid-2025 geopolitical tensions threatening to disrupt shipping across the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to higher shipping costs.
The study also said that ports need to adapt. Congestion and the need for sustainability and resilience in ports are accelerating the push for digital systems, but many developing countries still lag, it added.
Another major finding is the climate change. The study stated that shipping emissions rose 5 percent in 2024 but only 8 percent of the world’s active fleet tonnage is equipped for alternative fuels, underscoring the urgent need for fleet renewal and modernization and investment.
They also included the impact on seafarers. The study said that seafarer abandonment cases reached a record in 2024, highlighting the need for stronger enforcement of labour rights.
Following these findings, UNCTAD has proposed for stable trade policies to restore confidence in supply chains; investment in green, sustainable and resilient port and shipping infrastructure and services; and faster digitalization and stronger cybersecurity in maritime transport.
The study also called for support for developing economies, especially the most vulnerable to mitigate higher shipping costs.
