The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has released its 2025 Review of Maritime Transport, emphasizing the need for strategic policy interventions to address the challenges posed by evolving global trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and structural shifts in maritime transport.
The report underscores the persistent rerouting of maritime flows, which has heightened exposure to delays and rising costs, particularly for vulnerable economies such as least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS).
UNCTAD calls for targeted investments in corridor connectivity and transport infrastructure to mitigate these impacts.
Key Findings and Recommendations:
Trade Fragmentation and Industrial Policy Shifts:
Evolving global value chains risk marginalizing smaller economies from emerging trade corridors.
Maritime transport policies should prioritize regional integration, strengthen port-hinterland connectivity, and enhance logistics capacity to support diversified sourcing and reduce reliance on geographically concentrated trade flows.
Containerized Trade and Port Competitiveness:
The changing geography of containerized trade demands enhanced port competitiveness and coordination.
Countries with robust logistics capacity to manage diversified sourcing will be better positioned to attract trade and investment within reconfigured supply chains.
Energy Sector Transformation:
Ports must prepare for longer hauls and a growing share of low-carbon industrial and energy-related cargoes.
Future-ready infrastructure, including deeper berths, expanded storage, improved intermodal links, and faster cargo handling, is essential.
Critical Minerals Trade Opportunities:
Expanding trade in critical minerals offers significant opportunities but also heightens supply chain risks.
Policy responses should promote domestic processing, multimodal logistics, and alignment with renewed industrial policies to maximize benefits for resource-rich developing countries.
Outlook for 2025:
While global seaborne trade experienced firm growth in 2024, the outlook for 2025 suggests modest growth or stagnation, with maritime trade volume projected to expand by just 0.5 percent.
Containerized trade is expected to grow by 1.4 percent.
Over the medium term (2026–2030), total seaborne trade is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2 percent.
UNCTAD highlights the need for resilience-building measures to address macroeconomic uncertainty, sluggish global demand, and disruptions along key shipping lanes.
The report also emphasizes the importance of aligning maritime logistics with broader industrial objectives to enable structural transformation and sustainable development.
