Maritime research consultancy Drewry today released its latest analysis, highlighting a significant and persistent divergence in the global container shipping market: spot freight rates are slumping while containership charter rates continue their record-breaking ascent. Drewry forecasts this unique disconnect will continue through most of 2026 before an eventual, major market correction takes hold.
The analysis, featured in the Container Forecaster 03 | 2025, notes that containership charter rates remain approximately 200% higher than 2019 levels, a boom sustained for nearly five years, even as short-term freight rates have experienced steep declines. This counter-intuitive trend is being driven not by consumer demand for health but by structural supply-side constraints and strategic, long-term maneuvering by major carriers.
Drewry identifies four principal factors fueling this record decoupling:
Supply-Side Rigidity and Vessel Scarcity: The core driver is constrained vessel availability. Major liner operators have aggressively absorbed second-hand tonnage, structurally increasing the liner-owned fleet share from 54% in 2019 to 64% as of October 2025. This shift reduces market liquidity and grants non-operating owners (NOOs) significant pricing power, allowing them to secure premium, multi-year charter fixtures irrespective of short-term freight volatility.
Geopolitical Disruption and Capacity Drag: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly Red Sea insecurity, are forcing extended voyages via the Cape of Good Hope. These re-routings reduce effective global vessel availability and create scheduling unpredictability, inflating immediate demand for spot and time-chartered tonnage.
Strategic Forward Fixing: Shipping lines are increasingly prioritizing service reliability and fleet continuity by securing long-term charters as a strategic hedge against future operational and rate volatility. This forward-fixing behavior maintains high demand for charter vessels.
Regulatory Premium: The enforcement of emissions-related regulations (IMO and EU ETS) has introduced a new constraint. Charterers are now placing a high premium on dual-fuel and eco-efficient ships, creating a scarcity category and driving up rates for compliant tonnage.
Drewry projects that this separation will intensify next year. While the forecast sees average global freight rates (spot and contract) declining by approximately 16% in 2026, average charter rates for several vessel size ranges (up to 8,500 TEU) are expected to see incremental year-on-year improvement.
“The container shipping market is currently characterized by extremes: demand signals are cooling, but vessel supply is rigid and monopolized,” said a Drewry spokesperson. “Non-Operating Owners are undeniably the most advantaged players right now, capitalizing on structural capacity shortages and regulatory tailwinds to secure historically high, long-term charter commitments. These powerful, reinforcing drivers mean the great disconnect will persist well into 2026.”
Drewry anticipates that an eventual market correction for charter rates will follow this sustained boom. This correction will be triggered by a confluence of factors, including the delivery of a steady stream of newbuild vessels, slowing demand growth, squeezed carrier profit margins, and the potential for a return of safe Suez Canal transits. At some point, the impetus for carriers to hire ships at premium rates will unwind, dissolving the current long-term commitments.
