Global goods trade growth is moderating in the second half of 2025 following a robust surge in the first half, according to the latest Goods Trade Barometer released today by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The overall Barometer index, a composite leading indicator for world merchandise trade, fell to 101.8 in September, down from 102.2 in June. While the decline signals a moderation in global trade momentum, the reading remains above the 100 baseline, suggesting that trade volume growth is likely to slow in the fourth quarter but persist above its recent trend.
The strong growth in the first half of the year, which recorded actual merchandise trade volume growth of 4.9% year-on-year, was primarily driven by two factors: the frontloading of imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases, and sustained high demand for AI-related products.
The cooling trend is evident across several component indices. The indices for both air freight (102.7) and container shipping (101.7) have seen their values decline over the last three months, suggesting a reduction in the pace of global goods transportation. In contrast, the indices for automotive products (103.0) and electronic components (102.0) have held steady, remaining comfortably above the trend baseline. The agricultural raw materials index (98.0) was the only component to fall into contraction, a trend that has persisted since the start of the year.
Despite the overall moderation, the forward-looking new export orders index (102.3) continues to surpass the baseline value of 100, indicating sustained, albeit slower, underlying momentum for global exports.
Higher tariffs and lingering trade policy uncertainty are expected to weigh on growth in the second half of 2025. The WTO’s most recent trade forecast, released on 7 October, projects a 2025 full-year trade volume growth of 2.4%, though it notes significant upside potential if the current demand for AI-related products remains vigorous. The next comprehensive WTO trade forecast is scheduled for release in April 2026.
