Fitch Ratings has maintained its deteriorating outlook for the global shipping sector, reflecting geopolitical and policy risks, according to an Outlook report released today, Dec. 9, 2025.
The sector will also be affected by the lower gross domestic product (GDP) growth across most major economies in 2026 compared to 2025, with downside risk from any correction in financial markets.
Fitch also said that a key event risk across shipping segments is a resumption of Red Sea transits leading to a reduction in tonne-mile demand, although there is limited visibility on this possible development
Tariff disputes have moderated expectations for volume growth, particularly for container shipping, in 2025 and 2026, it added.
The medium-term impact from protectionist measures remains difficult to quantify but should be negative overall.
Compounding the shipping sector’s growth is an increase in trade protectionism that could also alter trade flows and limit demand for some high-margin or critical products over the medium term, although some new trade lanes could strengthen to offset those more affected by tariffs.
In terms of container shipping, Fitch expects performance to weaken in 2026 as lower freight rates resulting from weakened supply-demand balance will lead to lower profits in 2026.
Tanker shipping should continue to perform well, particularly for crude tankers, due to growth in end demand and tonne-miles.
The bulk tanker segment is likely to have weak but stable fundamentals year on year. We expect performance across other segments, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping and car carriers, to remain broadly stable.
Shipping order books have increased moderately across the various segments, but vessel scrappage remains low, resulting in a moderate capacity increase.
Lastly, Fitch noted that the International Maritime Organisation’s Net Zero framework has yet to be approved. This is likely to increase pressure on shipping companies’ cost structures over the medium term, and the extent of pass-through of increased costs has yet to be seen.
