The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released an updated analysis of the aerospace supply chain, underscoring that aircraft availability remains the single most significant brake on the aviation industry’s growth and recovery. IATA projects that the structural mismatch between airline demand and production capacity will not normalize until 2031-2034 due to persistent supply chain bottlenecks and a record-high order backlog.
The analysis highlights that while new aircraft deliveries saw a late-2025 uptick and production is expected to accelerate in 2026, demand is forecast to continue outstripping supply for the foreseeable future.
Current data points to a severe imbalance in the aerospace market:
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Delivery Shortfalls: The deficit of expected deliveries now totals at least 5,300 aircraft.
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Record Backlog: The order backlog has swelled to over 17,000 aircraft, equivalent to almost 60% of the active global fleet—significantly higher than the historical 30-40% ratio. This represents nearly 12 years of current production capacity.
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Aging Fleet: The average age of the global fleet has risen to 15.1 years (12.8 years for passenger aircraft), impacting efficiency and maintenance needs.
“Airlines are feeling the impact of the aerospace supply chain challenges across their business. Higher leasing costs, reduced scheduling flexibility, delayed sustainability gains, and increased reliance on suboptimal aircraft types are the most obvious challenges,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “Airlines are missing opportunities to strengthen their top-line, improve their environmental performance, and serve customers. Meanwhile, travelers are seeing higher costs from the resulting tighter demand/supply conditions. No effort should be spared to accelerate solutions before the impact becomes even more acute.”
IATA and Oliver Wyman estimate the total cost to the airline industry from these bottlenecks will exceed USD $11 billion in 2025, driven by four key factors:
| Factor | Estimated Cost (USD Billion) | Impact |
| Excess Fuel Costs | $4.2 | Older, less fuel-efficient aircraft in operation. |
| Additional Maintenance Costs | $3.1 | Aging global fleet requires more frequent and expensive upkeep. |
| Increased Engine Leasing Costs | $2.6 | Engines spending longer in maintenance and a rise in aircraft lease rates (20-30% since 2019). |
| Surplus Inventory Holding Costs | $1.4 | Airlines stocking more spare parts to mitigate unpredictable supply chain disruptions. |
The study also revealed several compounding production bottlenecks:
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Engine Production Lag: Airframe production is outpacing engine manufacturing, leading to newly completed airframes being parked until engines are available.
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Certification Delays: Timelines for new aircraft certification have extended dramatically (from 12-24 months to four or five years), severely delaying the entry into service of new models.
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Trade Tensions and Labor: Tariffs on metals and electronics and a shortage of skilled labor, particularly in engine and component manufacturing, are further constraining the production ramp-up.
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Slowing Fuel Efficiency: Due to the aging fleet, the historic annual fuel efficiency improvement of 2.0% has slowed to 0.3% in 2025, jeopardizing the industry’s environmental goals.
To mitigate the crisis, IATA is urging the industry to collaborate on key areas, as highlighted in the joint IATA/Oliver Wyman study:
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Open Up Aftermarket Practices: Support Maintenance, Repair and Operations (MRO) facilities to reduce dependence on OEM-driven licensing models and facilitate access to alternative sourcing.
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Enhance Supply Chain Visibility: Implement better data and tools to create clearer visibility across all supplier levels to spot risks and increase resilience.
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Optimize Data Use: Leverage predictive maintenance insights and create shared data platforms to optimize inventory and reduce aircraft downtime.
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Expand Repair and Parts Capacity: Accelerate repair approvals, support alternative parts and Used Serviceable Material (USM) solutions, and adopt advanced manufacturing technologies.
