The International Air Travel Association (IATA) revealed that while global air travel has historically far outpaced economic growth, capacity constraints are now moderating this trend, leading to a tighter market and record-high airline load factors.
IATA noted that for the past three decades, global air travel, measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK), consistently expanded at an average pace 2.3 times faster than global GDP. However, this rapid acceleration is now expected to slow, with RPK growth projected to align more closely with economic expansion, targeting a rate of 1.5 times the pace of GDP in 2025-2026.
The primary driver of this relative deceleration is supply-side friction. Delays in aircraft deliveries, significant maintenance backlogs, and persistent labor shortages are limiting airlines’ ability to scale operations in response to strong underlying demand, said IATA.
Key Passenger Traffic Projections for 2026:
Expected RPK Growth: Passenger traffic is nevertheless expected to increase by 4.9% year-over-year (YoY) in 2026.
Capacity Constraint Impact: Hypothetically, without these constraints, maintaining the historical 2.3x GDP pace, RPK growth could have reached 7.1% YoY.
Record Load Factor: Supply constraints are creating a tight market, which is driving up the load factor—the percentage of available seats filled. This key metric is set to reach a record high of 83.8% in 2026.
“While capacity issues limit top-line RPK growth, the resulting record load factors are a silver lining for airlines,” stated IATA Director0General Willie Walsh. “This elevated demand and reduced capacity combination boosts airlines’ yields and profitability, providing a crucial financial cushion in an otherwise challenging operating environment.”
IATA also highlights the unexpected agility and resilience of the air cargo sector. Air freight has played a critical enabling role in recent periods of trade volatility, allowing for the swift rerouting of goods and ensuring deadlines were met despite an uncertain global trade policy environment.
While overall merchandise trade growth is expected to show little growth next year, air cargo remains robust, benefiting from several structural tailwinds:
Projected Air Cargo Traffic Growth: 2.6% in 2026.
Structural Drivers: Growing demand for high-value, time-sensitive goods, the structural shift toward e-commerce, and AI-driven investment continue to favor air freight.
In times of market uncertainty, where speed and reliability are paramount, air freight is reinforcing its position as the preferred transport option.
