The Department of Agriculture (DA) expects the volume of rice imports in 2026 to fall below 4 million metric tons as domestic production is projected to hit a new record.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. said import volumes next year will likely range between 3.6 million and 3.8 million metric tons—sufficient to meet national demand without depressing farmgate prices.
At a consultative meeting with rice importers on Monday, Tiu Laurel outlined a plan to better calibrate import volumes to keep rice affordable for consumers while ensuring fair palay prices for farmers, a balance that importers support.
The projected import volume takes into consideration the DA’s forecast that palay output next year would reach around 20.3 million metric tons—almost the same as the original the target set for this year but won’t be hit due to the impact of flooding and other weather-related disturbances. The Philippines set a record harvest 20.06 million metric tons in 2023.
Even before the four-month import ban is lifted at the end of the year, the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) will begin processing applications for Sanitary and Phytosanitary Import Clearances (SPICs) covering about 500,000 metric tons, including the 50,000 metric tons reserved for government agencies. All shipments must arrive by mid-February to prevent imported rice from weighing on palay prices at the start of the summer harvest.
When importation resumes, tariffs will rise to 20 percent from 15 percent, in line with an agreement among economic managers of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
“The tariff increase reflects several realities—the recent depreciation of the peso and the likelihood of higher global prices once the Philippines reenters the market,” Tiu Laurel said.
To ease cash-flow pressures on importers, the DA will waive the usual 10-percent down payment requirement for SPIC issuance.
Rice imports during the January–February window will be limited to 17 ports nationwide: Manila, Batangas, Tacloban, Bacolod, Iligan, Cagayan de Oro, Davao, Zamboanga, Cebu, Iloilo, Capiz, Tagbilaran, Dumaguete, Subic, Calbayog, General Santos, and Tabaco.
Tiu Laurel also urged importers to diversify their sources. “Instead of relying almost entirely on Vietnam, we encourage importers to consider Cambodia, Myanmar, and other non-traditional suppliers,” he said.
Rice importation has been liberalized under the Rice Tariffication Law. In 2024, the Philippines imported a record 4.8 million metric tons of rice—33 percent more than in 2023—as traders moved early amid concerns over weaker harvests caused by El Niño and La Niña.
The BPI estimates total rice imports this year to hit around 3.5 million metric tons, sharply lower than the 2024 record, largely due to the four-month import freeze that began in September.
Tiu Laurel said the additional 1.2 million metric tons imported in 2024, combined with heavy arrivals in early 2025 before the ban took effect, dragged down palay prices and squeezed farmers’ incomes.
The US Department of Agriculture has forecast Philippine rice imports at 5.5 million metric tons for marketing year 2025–2026. However, with the import ban already in place and the DA committed to tightly managing volumes to support farmgate prices, that projection is increasingly unlikely to be realized.
