The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for November 2025 global air cargo markets, revealing a 5.5% increase in total demand compared to November 2024. This growth reflects a robust end-of-year peak season, driven by holiday logistics and strong performance in emerging markets.
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Demand: Global cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs) rose by 5.5% year-on-year (+6.9% for international operations).
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Capacity: Available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs) increased by 4.7% (+6.5% for international operations).
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Operational Context: Manufacturing sentiment improved, with the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rising to 51.17, though new export orders remain cautious due to global tariff uncertainties. “Air cargo demand grew 5.5% year-on-year in November, boosted by shippers prioritizing timely delivery in the lead-up to the holiday season,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “Strong emerging market demand more than made up for softness in the Americas amid adjustments to the new US tariff regime. The strong end for 2025 bodes well for the industry as it enters the new year.”
| Region | Demand Growth (CTK) | Capacity Growth (ACTK) |
| Africa | +15.6% | +18.1% |
| Asia-Pacific | +10.3% | +8.4% |
| Middle East | +7.4% | +11.0% |
| Europe | +5.8% | +4.1% |
| North America | -1.6% | -2.3% |
| Latin America | -4.8% | -3.0% |
Despite the positive demand, the industry faced significant headwinds:
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Fuel Volatility: While crude prices fell, jet fuel prices rose 5.9% in November. This was driven by refinery disruptions and EU restrictions on Russian-derived products, causing crack spreads to nearly double compared to last year.
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Trade Shifts: Global goods trade grew by 3.2%, but regional performance was polarized. While Africa and Asia-Pacific saw double-digit growth, the Americas experienced contraction—partially attributed to ongoing adjustments to the new US tariff regime.
The fourth quarter has proven resilient, shaped by the strategic re-routing of trade across key markets. As the industry moves into 2026, the stabilization of manufacturing sentiment and the surge in emerging market demand provide a cautiously optimistic foundation for the coming year.
