Global trade reached a historic milestone in 2025, exceeding $35 trillion for the first time following a 7% year-on-year increase. However, the first Global Trade Update of 2026 from UN Trade and Development warns that this momentum is cooling as geopolitical tensions, protectionism, and structural shifts redefine the global economic landscape.
The report highlights a “complex and fragmented” environment where the digital and green transitions are clashing with tighter national regulations and shifting supply chains.
While trade growth is expected to remain positive throughout 2026, the pace is projected to decelerate. Global economic growth is forecasted at a subdued 2.6%, with major engines of trade losing momentum:
United States: Growth is projected to slow to 1.5% (down from 1.8% in 2025).
China: Growth is expected to dip to 4.6% (down from 5%).
Europe: Modest demand continues as fiscal stimulus offers only limited support.
Developing economies (excluding China) are projected to slow to 4.2%. UN Trade and Development warns that this slowdown weakens export demand and tightens financial conditions, making it imperative for these nations to pursue regional trade integration and digital diversification to build resilience against future shocks.
As unilateral tariffs and trade restrictions rise, the upcoming World Trade Organization (WTO) 14th Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé marks a critical juncture for global trade rules.
The report identifies several high-stakes priorities for developing nations to ensure the multilateral system does not fragment further:
Restoring Dispute Settlement: Revitalizing the Appellate Body to ensure international trade rules remain enforceable.
Preserving Policy Space: Maintaining “special and differential treatment” to give developing nations the flexibility needed to implement complex rules.
Climate & Trade: Navigating the surge in subsidies and standards related to the green transition that directly impact global competitiveness.
“The outcomes in Yaoundé will determine whether global trade rules adapt to the modern era or succumb to further fragmentation,” the report states.
The January Global Trade Update outlines ten critical trends—ranging from the acceleration of green value chains to the restructuring of digital services—that will define the year. The report serves as a call to action for policymakers to prioritize investment facilitation and digital trade to seize emerging opportunities in a shifting market.
