The domestic motor vehicle industry is not expected to return to full speed this year, with the sector likely to post another year of flat growth.
Jose Maria Atienza, the newly installed president of the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc. (CAMPI), told reporters covering the CAMPI Presidency Turnover ceremony on Tuesday, January 27, that the industry is projecting a conservative 2–3 percent sales growth in 2026 to about 503,000 units from 491,395 units in 2025. The 2025 sales performance ended flat, posting a modest 3.7 percent increase from 473,842 units sold in 2024.
“As a whole market, it’s 503,000. It’s around 2, 2.4, 2.5 percent growth,” said Atienza, adding that CAMPI’s growth forecast for 2026 aligns with the broader industry outlook. He noted, however, that the industry slowdown last year may have already bottomed out and expressed optimism for a market recovery.
CAMPI is deliberately avoiding a more aggressive projection of “very big number of say 510,000 units or 520,000 units” for 2026. Atienza cited how the industry started 2025 on a positive note, posting 5–7 percent growth in the first half, only to experience a sharp slowdown in the second half of the year before experiencing a strong December rally that boosted the full-year 2025 performance.
“We all saw how the market slowed down during the second half. And during these times also, we need to see where will it go. So right now, just accepting reality of what happened in the second half, but still positive that at least it’s bottomed out, then you see some growth. So we’re still on the more conservative side of the projection,” he said.
“We’ve seen how it’s grown and dropped and grown. So it’s, again, it goes with the timing, I guess, of economic development. So, we are hopeful that the economy will also pick up and build that industry, including vehicle sales.”
A seasoned automotive marketing executive with 35 years of industry experience, most of which were spent at Toyota Motor Philippines, Atienza said growth drivers this year would include sales of electrified vehicles, as well as strong-performing segments such as multipurpose vehicles and L300s or Tamaraws, which recorded strong growth last year.
“There are growth areas in the market. And again, it would just depend on when it will grow. It’s a sound market, actually. It’s a very sound market. It just would depend on when the customers would have the confidence to purchase more,” he said.
Atienza also said that the pick-up segment, which declined by 20 percent following the imposition of excise taxes, could recover as consumers adjust to higher prices to meet their mobility needs.
He cited ongoing shifts in customer preferences from passenger vehicles to commercial vehicles, depending on usage requirements.
