The global shipping industry is recalibrating its transition to alternative fuels as geopolitical volatility and a key regulatory delay push maritime leaders toward more risk-averse strategies. According to the ICS Maritime Barometer 2024–2025, the industry’s “march toward net-zero” is facing a period of stagnation, with executives increasingly prioritizing established fuels over emerging green technologies.
The shift in sentiment coincides with the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) decision to postpone the vote on its proposed Net-Zero Framework (NZF) by one year. Originally intended to establish binding carbon-intensity targets and a market mechanism for credits and penalties, the delay has introduced a wave of uncertainty regarding the economic viability of green investments.
Risk Aversion is Surmounting: For the second consecutive year, geopolitical instability ranked as the highest risk for maritime leaders. This has led to a preference for “known quantities”—fuels with mature supply chains and proven safety protocols.
The Rise of LNG: C-suite executives ranked LNG as the most viable fuel for the next decade. Driven by widespread infrastructure in hubs like Singapore and Rotterdam, and a growing focus on reducing methane slip, LNG demand is forecasted to rise 60% by 2040.
Stagnation in New Tech: Enthusiasm for hydrogen and biofuels has cooled. Hydrogen’s viability rating has dropped 10% over the last four surveys, hampered by storage costs and low energy density for deep-sea shipping.
The “Regulation Gap”: Leaders noted that methanol and ammonia—while promising—currently lack the economic competitiveness of traditional fuels. Experts suggest these will only reach scale through firm global mandates.
“The findings suggest a pragmatic turn,” said [Name/Title, Optional]. “Shipping leaders are not abandoning decarbonization, but they are seeking predictability. Without the regulatory certainty of the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework, the industry is leaning into fuels that offer immediate operational security amidst a turbulent global landscape.”
While LNG and HFO (with abatement technology) lead the rankings, the report highlights significant hurdles for other alternatives:
Methanol: Dropped in viability rankings due to the high cost of green production, though dual-fuel vessel orders remain strong.
Ammonia: Faces “stiffer barriers” related to toxicity and the urgent need for specialized crew training and safety management systems.
Biofuels: Remain the third most viable option but face growing concerns regarding feedstock competition from the aviation sector.
The ICS Barometer concludes that while the industry remains committed to long-term sustainability, the immediate focus has shifted toward resilience. The path to 2040 will likely require a “baseload” of industrial hydrogen use and a significant scaling of renewable electricity before deep-sea shipping can fully move away from bridge fuels like LNG.
