The International Air Transport Association (IATA) issued an urgent alert regarding the severe disruption of global energy flows following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East on February 28, 2026.
IATA noted that the crisis has exposed deep vulnerabilities in the aviation industry’s fuel security, with the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for 20% of the world’s oil—becoming effectively impassable.
Tanker traffic through the Strait has collapsed by 70–80%, creating an immediate vacuum in the availability of refined products. While the entire global market is feeling the shock, Europe is particularly vulnerable. The region relies on the Persian Gulf for 25–30% of its total jet fuel demand.
IATA said that with shipping capacity withdrawn and insurance premiums skyrocketing, jet fuel “cracks” (the price difference between crude oil and refined product) have surged, sparking fears of physical shortages.
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Thin Inventories: European jet fuel security relies on commercial stocks that typically cover just over one month of demand, leaving little margin for prolonged disruption.
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Bottlenecked Alternatives: While India and China are potential alternative suppliers, they face their own constraints. Approximately 84% of the crude normally passing through the Strait is destined for Asian markets; without that crude, global refining capacity is severely throttled.
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Logistical Costs: Rerouting tankers via the Cape of Good Hope, combined with rising war-risk premiums, has significantly extended delivery timelines and inflated operational costs for carriers.
IATA emphasizes that because the aviation industry cannot substitute jet fuel at scale, it remains uniquely exposed to geopolitical shocks. The current crisis underscores the necessity for:
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Strategic Reserves: Establishing dedicated jet fuel stockpiles similar to crude oil reserves.
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Diversified Sourcing: Reducing over-reliance on single geographical corridors.
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SAF Acceleration: Fast-tracking the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) to decouple aviation from volatile global oil markets. “This crisis is a wake-up call for governments and the industry alike,” said an IATA spokesperson. “Strengthening supply chain redundancy and reinforcing fuel resilience is no longer a long-term goal—it is a present-day necessity for the survival of global connectivity.”
