Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. assured senators on Tuesday that the country’s food supply will remain sufficient in the coming months, but warned that escalating tensions in the Middle East could drive food prices higher through rising logistics and input costs, particularly urea-based fertilizer.
Speaking at a Senate briefing, Tiu Laurel emphasized that the immediate risk lies not in shortages but in affordability. Higher fuel prices, he said, are expected to ripple across the agricultural value chain, increasing costs for fertilizers, transportation, and logistics.
“As agriculture secretary, I don’t want to do this, but we could import what we need to ensure supply is sufficient. We could always cut tariffs to mitigate the impact of higher freight costs,” he said.
Rice supply, he noted, remains stable. Stocks held by the National Food Authority are enough to feed the population for more than nine days, while the domestic palay harvest is nearing its peak. Additional imports have also arrived following the lifting of the September-to-December import restriction.
However, Tiu Laurel cautioned that any sustained increase in production costs could begin to affect rice prices by August.
The Department of Agriculture is primarily concerned about the potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for fertilizer supply, where about 30 percent of global urea trade and roughly 20 percent of ammonia and phosphate shipments pass through.
Data from the DA show that food prices have so far remained broadly stable, despite the geopolitical shock triggered by the February 28 airstrikes involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Other key commodities also show adequate supply. Pork inventories remain sufficient, supported by fully stocked cold storage facilities, while broiler production is running above demand, pulling farmgate prices down to P93–P96 per kilo from about P103 previously.
To cushion the sector, the government has begun distributing subsidies and assistance to millions of farmers and fisherfolk, drawing from both 2025 funds and a P10 billion allocation for this year. The bulk of the distribution of assistance will be after the Holy Week.
Still, Tiu Laurel acknowledged that additional funding may be needed if oil prices at USD200 per barrel for an extended period.
“These are challenging times,” he said, stressing that while government will lead the response, sustained resilience will depend on efficiency gains, stronger local production, and coordinated action across sectors.
