BIMCO also noted an increase in cargo volume growth, predicting a rise of 5.5-6.5% in 2024, followed by 3-4% growth in 2025 and 3.5-4.5% in 2026. The primary driver of ship demand in 2024 was the shift from Suez Canal routings to the Cape of Good Hope routings, a trend expected to continue throughout 2025.
BIMCO anticipates that ships will return to normal routines by 2026, which could negatively impact ship demand growth despite a projected cargo volume expansion of 3.5-4.5%.
If ships resume normal routines in 2025, BIMCO forecasts a 5-6% decline in ship demand for that year, followed by a 3.5-4.5% growth in 2026. Conversely, if Suez Canal routings remain disrupted in 2026, ship demand growth will align with cargo volume growth for both 2025 and 2026.
Despite disappointing import volume growth in South & West Asia in 2024, BIMCO forecasts the region will experience the fastest import volume growth during 2025-2026, with an average annual growth of 6.5-7.5%, returning to levels seen in 2021 and 2023.
In South & Central America, despite a slowdown in Brazil’s economic growth, import volumes are expected to grow by 5-6% annually during 2025-2026, driven by economic recovery in Argentina and increased growth in Colombia.
BIMCO believes that if interest rates continue to fall and consumer confidence improves, volumes into Europe & Mediterranean could exceed current forecasts. EU consumers, like their US counterparts, have accumulated more savings than usual. If these savings are converted into increased spending on goods, import volumes could surpass expectations.
However, potential challenges include President-elect Trump’s plans to raise import tariffs and deport illegal immigrants, which could negatively impact consumers and economic growth. Retaliatory actions from trading partners could further harm global trade and economic growth, leading to lower container volumes.
BIMCO expects ship demand growth to be higher than average in late 2024 and early 2025, as MSC and members of the Gemini and Premier Alliances may require additional ships to transition to new service patterns.
Additionally, if the International Longshoremen’s Association and United States Maritime Alliance fail to reach an agreement by January 15, extensive strikes at US East and Gulf Coast ports could cause significant disruptions. A short-term strike could temporarily increase ship demand to cover delays, while a long-term strike could reduce ship demand as trade to and from the US would come to a halt.
