Global container shipping is on track to face a sharp downturn this year, primarily driven by the ongoing tariff war initiated by President Donald Trump. The impact is already being felt, with significant cargo booking cancellations across Asia, according to industry outlet Splash 247.
In a recent post on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump warned of a potential 50% additional tariff on Chinese imports. This threat followed China’s imposition of a 34% counter-tariff on US goods last Friday. Trump stated that unless China retracts its retaliatory tariffs, the US will enforce the additional levy today, which would bring total tariffs on Chinese goods to 104%. He also announced that all talks with China regarding their requests for meetings would be terminated, and negotiations with other nations seeking meetings would commence immediately.
Splash 247 reported that the blanket tariffs announced by the US last week have already led to “significant” cargo booking cancellations in Asia, according to container analysts at Linerlytica. These cancellations are undermining the efforts of shipping carriers to raise transpacific freight rates and have thrown the upcoming May contract negotiations into uncertainty.
Lars Jensen, head of liner consultancy Vespucci Maritime, commented that US importers are increasingly adopting a “wait-and-see” approach, halting or postponing shipments where possible, depending on their supply chain and inventory capabilities. “To the extent that their supply chains allow, importers are choosing to delay shipments,” Jensen explained.
Jensen also warned that the next likely consequence would be additional blank sailings to the US, as carriers adjust to a potential steep drop in bookings. Some ships, he suggested, could even face a “hot layup” (temporary suspension) if the situation worsens.
Linerlytica highlighted that the US tariff rate on container imports, weighted by volume, will likely rise significantly to 36%, setting the stage for a full-scale trade war. This escalation has already led to a downward revision of global container demand growth, with projections for 2025 now showing a decline of -1.1%. These projections do not yet factor in the additional 50% tariff Trump has threatened to impose on China.
In 2024, China and Vietnam—two countries at the center of US tariff actions—accounted for 51% of all US container imports, according to Linerlytica data. The combined tariff impact on these nations now exceeds 36% based on their share of total US container imports.
Linerlytica also warned of a significant stagflation risk in the US if these tariffs are implemented without any exemptions. As of last Friday, Clarksons Research reported that 11% of global container trade volumes were subject to tariffs. During the 2018-19 US-China trade war, container trade tariffs reached 5% of global volumes, leading to a 0.5% drag on overall global box trade, according to Clarksons.
As the situation unfolds, the global container shipping industry faces mounting uncertainty, with tariffs playing a critical role in shaping both market behavior and growth expectations.
