After a period of significant fluctuation, Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) has experienced its tenth consecutive week of decline, signaling a new phase of market stabilization. The previous volatility was triggered by the announcement of new U.S. tariffs in April, which caused an initial surge in shipping rates from May to early June, followed by a sharp drop through mid-July. The recent slowdown in this downward trend suggests the market is now adjusting to new economic realities.
Transpacific and Asia-Europe Rates Decline
The Transpacific trade lane saw a continued decrease in spot rates as the early peak season, driven by accelerated U.S. retail purchasing, came to an end. Rates for a 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU) from Shanghai to Los Angeles dropped 3% to $2,412, while rates from Shanghai to New York fell 5% to $3,463. Retailers are now scaling back procurement in response to a decelerating U.S. economy and increased tariff costs, leading Drewry to forecast less volatility in these rates in the near term.
On the Asia-Europe trade lane, spot rates also declined despite healthy demand and ongoing port delays. This is primarily due to a growing surplus of vessel capacity. Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam decreased 6% to $2,973/FEU, and from Shanghai to Genoa by 3% to $2,978/FEU. Drewry anticipates that spot rates on this route will likely continue to decrease in the coming weeks.
Future Outlook
Drewry’s Container Forecaster anticipates a further weakening of the supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, which is expected to cause spot rates to contract. The degree and timing of future rate changes will depend on uncertain factors, including the potential for new tariffs and capacity shifts resulting from any penalties imposed on Chinese ships.
