Amid increasingly erratic weather patterns, the Department of Agriculture (DA) has scaled back its rice production target for 2025, citing widespread flooding in key agricultural areas.
During the presentation of the DA’s 2026 budget to the House of Representatives’ Committee on Appropriations, the food agency revised its 2025 outlook to between 20.09 and 20.39 million metric tons, translating to 12.65 to 12.85 million metric tons of milled rice.
Despite the adjustment, the country is still on track to surpass its all-time high palay harvest this year.
The DA had an initial forecast of a record-breaking 20.46 million metric tons, a strong recovery from 2024’s 19.09 million—a year marred by the twin blows of El Niño and La Niña.
“The rainfall volume we’ve seen in recent months has been unprecedented,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. told lawmakers. “This is just a more conservative stance—prudence in the face of uncertainty.”
After the hearing, the agriculture chief said palay price volatility in recent months could also have an impact on farmers’ planting intentions.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has ordered a two-month suspension of rice importation, which started on September 1, to stabilize palay prices.
Despite the adjustment, optimism remains high. Palay output in the first half of 2025 surged 6.4 percent year-on-year to 9.08 million metric tons, driven higher by improved weather conditions and intensified government support.
Historically, the second half of the year accounts for over 55 percent of total rice production.
Meanwhile, rice supply by year-end is projected to settle between 3.86 and 3.96 million metric tons, equivalent to 96 to 101 days of national consumption. The per capita consumption used in the calculation was 122.7 kilos annually, as estimated by the Philippine Statistics Authority.
With volatile weather now the new normal, the DA’s recalibrated outlook reflects both cautious realism and continued ambition to secure the nation’s staple food.
The DA has been trying to adjust rice planting calendar to reduce the impact of changing weather pattern on grains production and ensure country is food-secure as envisioned by President Marcos.
In his opening statement during the committee hearing, Secretary Tiu Laurel said the proposed P176.7 billion budget for the DA next year is a critical investment in achieving the goal of modernizing Philippine agriculture and increasing farmers and fisherfolk incomes.
Several lawmakers have pledged support for the DA budget, and expressed willingness to back any proposal from the Committee on Appropriations chaired by Nueva Ecija Rep. Mikaela Angela Suansing that would increase the capital outlay of the agency for 2026.
