The country’s coconut export is expected to reach around USD3 billion next year on projected recovery in production starting in the last quarter this year.
Marco Reyes, chairman of the United Coconut Association of the Philippines (UCAP), said during a press conference at the opening of the three-day World Coconut Congress 2025 at SMX Convention Center in Pasay City, that production is expected to recover next year from the drought in the past years.
“With a bigger supply, it is possible to reach USD3 billion,” Reyes said.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed the Philippines remained one of the world’s top exporters of coconut products at USD2.66 billion in 2024 with coconut oil alone accounting for USD2.2 billion. As of the first semester this year, the country’s coconut exports already hit USD1.38 billion, making it the country’s top five export commodity during that period.
Reyes said that exports this year is expected to remain steady at USD2.6 billion.
Contributing to the recovery in 2026 is the good weather with better rain patterns and not much typhoons. The fertilization program is also expected to take effect next year resulting in higher production. These positive factors are expected to start impacting supply in the last quarter this year leading to recovery next year.
Industry outlook also appears brighter in the coming years as the government is pushing for the completion of its goal to plant 100 million coconut trees by 2028. “There’s a multiplier effect. That’s why it’s a good program to increase replanting, hybridization, and fertilization. So that USD2 billion to USD3 billion, it could be exponential,” he added.
Coconut trees start bearing fruit on the fifth year from planting.
UCAP Vice Chairman Dean Lao said 55 percent of the country’s total coconut exports go to EU and 25 percent, U.S.
Seventy percent of this figure is crude coconut oil, which is the lowest value in the industry’s value chain.
Lao also noted that copra prices may soften next year following the record prices last year, but the recovery in production would make up for the lower prices. Current copra meal prices hover around PHP80 a kilo.
