Global container shipping costs have dropped to levels not seen since the beginning of the year, with Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) falling 5% this week to $1,669 per 40ft container. This latest decline marks the 16th consecutive weekly reduction for the composite index, a clear indicator of softening global trade demand.
The composite index, which tracks key East-West trade routes, is now at its lowest point since January 2024, reversing the price spikes seen earlier this year. The decline was broad-based across major routes:
Asia-US West Coast: Spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles (LA) decreased 5% to $2,196 per 40ft container (feu).
Asia-US East Coast: Rates from Shanghai to New York (NY) decreased 2% to $3,200 per feu.
Asia-Europe: The Asia–Europe trade lane saw its 10th consecutive week of declines, with rates on:
Shanghai to Rotterdam (Europe’s largest port) dropping 7% to $1,613 per feu.
Shanghai to Genoa (Mediterranean) falling 9% to $1,804 per feu.
Causes and Near-Term Outlook
The sustained downward pressure on freight rates is primarily attributed to a growing imbalance between supply and demand.
- Weakening Demand and Golden Week:
Carriers are responding to a significant slowdown in demand ahead of the upcoming China’s Golden Week holiday, which begins on October 1st and sees factories shut for eight days. The slowdown is forcing carriers to take measures to reduce the available shipping capacity.
- Carrier Response:
To prevent a further collapse in spot rates, carriers are actively implementing blank sailings (cancelling scheduled voyages) and reducing overall capacity. Despite these efforts, East-West spot rates are expected to continue their decrease in the coming weeks as the market works through excess capacity.
Long-Term Market Forecast
Drewry’s Container Forecaster maintains a cautious outlook for the container shipping market’s future. The advisory firm anticipates that the supply-demand balance will continue to weaken over the next few quarters, leading to further contraction in spot rates. This structural weakening is driven by the delivery of new, larger vessels into the global fleet, which is outpacing cargo volume growth.
