The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025 to 2.4%, up sharply from the previous estimate of 0.9% made in August. This upward revision follows a more resilient performance in the first half of the year, driven by robust demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI)-related products, a surge in North American imports anticipating future tariffs, and stronger trade flows among emerging economies.
The revised projection is detailed in the WTO’s 7 October update of “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics.” Economists noted that the first-half strength was propelled by several factors:
AI-Related Trade: A substantial increase in spending on goods vital for AI development, such as semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment, provided a significant tailwind to trade volumes.
Inventory Build-Up: North American importers front-loaded purchases, increasing inventories ahead of anticipated tariff hikes.
Emerging Economies’ Resilience: Trade among the ‘rest of the world’, particularly South-South trade (trade between developing countries), showed remarkable strength. In value terms, South-South trade grew 8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, outpacing the 6% growth in overall world trade. Trade between South-South partners, excluding China, grew even faster, by approximately 9%.
Outlook for 2026 and Services Trade
While 2025’s outlook is brighter, the WTO cautions that trade growth is expected to slow in 2026. The projection for merchandise trade growth next year has been lowered to 0.5% (down from 1.8%). This deceleration is expected as the impact of a cooling global economy and the full effect of new tariffs take hold.
The report also indicates a slowdown in the growth of global services exports, which is forecasted to ease from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and further to 4.4% in 2026.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala commended the resilience observed in global trade:
“Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world—particularly among emerging economies—helped ease trade setbacks in 2025,” said DG Okonjo-Iweala.
She underscored the critical role of the global trading framework: “Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system. Yet complacency is not an option. Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere.”
