The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for the full year 2025, revealing a resilient global air cargo market that successfully adapted to significant geopolitical shifts and evolving trade policies.
Demand Growth: Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), rose 3.4% compared to 2024 (+4.2% for international operations).
Capacity Expansion: Available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK) increased by 3.7% over 2024 (+5.1% for international operations).
Yield Stabilization: Full-year yields fell by only 1.5%, the smallest decline in three years. While competitive pressures remain, yields hold steady at 37.2% above 2019 levels, signaling a return to a normalized supply-demand balance.
December 2025 closed the year on a high note, with global demand tracking 4.3% above December 2024 levels. Capacity also saw a year-over-year boost of 4.5%, reflecting the industry’s ability to scale operations during the peak year-end season.
“Air cargo delivered a strong performance in 2025,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “Global e-commerce strength drove volumes, even as trading relationships with the US faced rising tariffs and the removal of de minimis exemptions. Air cargo rose to the occasion, adapting quickly to support businesses as they front-loaded deliveries and adjusted to shifting trade routes between Asia and Europe.”
Several key economic indicators shaped the 2025 landscape:
Trade Growth: Global goods trade grew 4.4% through November 2025, outperforming the 2.4% growth seen in 2024.
Manufacturing Sentiment: The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reached 50.9 in December, though new export orders (49.1) remained slightly below the expansion threshold due to tariff-related caution.
Fuel Costs: Average jet fuel prices were 9.1% lower in 2025 than in 2024. However, higher crack spreads allowed refiners to capture more margin, partially offsetting the savings for airlines.
Looking ahead, IATA expects growth to moderate to 2.4% in 2026, aligning with historical trends.
“We can expect that demand will continue to be shaped by trade and geopolitical developments,” Walsh added. “Whatever trading patterns emerge, we can be confident that reliance on air cargo to keep global supply chains running will remain.”
