Food inflation eased sharply in January, offering consumers some breathing room after the holiday season, but Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. cautioned that the downtrend remains fragile and requires tighter management of the country’s food supply to prevent renewed price pressures.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed food inflation slowing to 0.7 percent in January, down from 1.2 percent in December and 4.0 percent in January last year. The moderation was largely attributed to fading holiday demand and a favorable base effect, although the PSA warned that emerging pressures in several food categories could quickly reverse the gains.
“The numbers are encouraging, but they’re not a signal to relax,” Tiu Laurel said. “We are looking very closely at how we manage food supply—from production to imports and distribution—because any slippage can quickly translate into higher prices that hurt consumers and weigh on overall economic activity.”
Food prices carry heavy weight in the consumer price index, making them especially influential on headline inflation and monetary policy. A renewed pickup could disproportionately hit lower-income households and complicate the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ plans to ease monetary policy to support growth. Economic momentum has already softened, with gross domestic product growth slowing to 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter, bringing full-year 2025 expansion to 4.4 percent.
For the bottom 30 percent income households, inflation actually climbed to 1.6 percent in January from 1.1 percent in December, though still below the 2.4 percent recorded a year earlier. Higher food and housing costs were the main drivers, underscoring the vulnerability of poorer Filipinos to even modest price swings.
The January slowdown in food inflation was mainly driven by vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses, which rose 3.3 percent year on year, easing sharply from 11.6 percent in December 2025. Rice prices also remained supportive: while month-on-month inflation stood at 3.4 percent, rice was still 8.5 percent cheaper than a year earlier, reflecting the Department of Agriculture’s maximum suggested retail price policy on imported rice. The ceiling, first set at P58 per kilo last year, has since been reduced gradually to the current level of P43 per kilo.
Other food items showing slower price increases included corn, meat, fish and seafood, and oils and fats. However, upward pressures intensified for bread and bakery products, dairy and eggs, fruits and nuts, and ready-made food, signaling potential risks ahead.
Overall, food inflation contributed 0.3 percentage point, or 15.1 percent, to January’s headline inflation. Fish and seafood, vegetables, and meat were the biggest contributors—areas Tiu Laurel said the government will continue to monitor closely as it works to keep food prices stable in the months ahead.
