The Department of Agriculture is stepping up preparations for a looming El Niño episode, warning that a moderate to strong event later this year could hit farm output, sharply undermine farmers’ income, and slow down economic activity.
“It is no longer a question whether we will experience another El Niño after the 2024 episode that undermined rice harvest. The only question that needs to be answered is its intensity,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. said.
The preparation for El Niño and the drought it could trigger forms part of the broader directive of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to ensure food security despite geopolitical uncertainty and rising climate risks.
The DA chief has ordered the agency’s Masagana Rice Industry Development Program ( MRIDP) led by Undersecretary Christopher V. Morales, to prepare for worst case scenarios, alongside support from the Philippine Rice Research Institute and other units.
The directive comes as the country also grapples with a national energy emergency that has pushed up farm input costs, adding another layer of pressure on already vulnerable producers.
PhilRice executive director John de Leon said a presentation by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) showed that the probability of a moderate to strong El Niño has reached 92 percent based on ENSO outlook. ENSO refers to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which is a recurring climate patter caused by dynamic sea temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the Pacific.
De Leon said that some global climate models even point to a potential “super” El Niño, with projected warming of up to 2.2 degrees Celsius, which could significantly reduce rainfall and strain water resources across key agricultural areas. DA officials are now reviewing rainfall projections and water availability to adjust planting strategies and mitigate risks.
Morales said this may include shifting to less water intensive crops such as mung beans, adjusting planting calendars, and accelerating the rollout of solar-powered irrigation systems to offset rising fuel and electricity costs and provide water for drought-affect farms.
The DA is also coordinating with the National Irrigation Administration, now under the Office of the President, to optimize water allocation and ensure that irrigation systems are ready to support farmers during prolonged dry spells.
The urgency is shaped by recent experience. In 2024, agricultural output declined by 2.2 percent, driven by a 4.2 percent drop in the crops sector, which accounts for 56 percent of total farm production. Rice and corn, the country’s staple crops, were among the hardest hit.
The combined impact of climate stress and higher energy costs could heighten risks to food supply, push up prices, and weigh on overall economic growth. With rice playing a key role in inflation, even modest production disruptions could ripple through the broader economy.
Early and coordinated intervention, officials said, will be critical to cushion the impact and protect both farmers’ livelihoods and national food security.
