The World Trade Organization (WTO) has projected a 2.7% increase in the volume of world merchandise trade for 2024. This forecast follows the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer released on December 9, which indicated continued trade expansion through the end of the year.
In the third quarter of 2024, world merchandise trade volume rose by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter and 3.3% year-on-year on a seasonally adjusted basis. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of moderate trade expansion. In comparison, merchandise trade in current US dollar terms increased by 4.3% year-on-year in Q3, a significant improvement from the 1.8% rise in Q2 and the 1.4% contraction in Q1.
For the year through September, trade volume was up 2.4% compared to the same period in 2023, slightly below the WTO’s most recent forecast of 2.7% for 2024 issued on October 10. Meanwhile, the value of merchandise trade increased by 1.6% over 2023. The slower growth in trade value compared to volume suggests a small (less than 1%) decline in the prices of traded goods during this period.
However, the WTO has warned that the short-term outlook for trade is clouded by rising global trade tensions.
Regional Trade Performance
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including certain associate and former member states, recorded the largest quarter-on-quarter increase in exports at 5.4%. North America followed with a 2.1% rise, while Asia and the Middle East posted gains of 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively. South and Central America and the Caribbean saw modest export growth of 0.2%, while shipments from Africa grew by just 0.1%.
On the import side, the CIS region led with a 3.3% quarter-on-quarter rise in Q3, followed by Africa at 2.5% and North America at 2.3%. Asia recorded a 2.0% increase, while the Middle East posted a 1.0% gain. South and Central America saw imports grow by 0.6% in the latest quarter.
Europe was the only region to record negative export and import volume growth, with declines of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, as manufacturing continued to experience a prolonged downturn. Europe’s trade performance in the first three quarters of 2024 was slightly worse than the WTO’s October forecast for the year. The region’s exports during this period were down 1.8% year-on-year, while imports fell by 3.3%, both slightly worse than the projected declines of 1.4% for exports and 2.3% for imports.
Notable Performances
The latest figures in value terms through September show robust growth in most Asian and Latin American economies, with some notable exceptions. Argentina recorded the strongest export performance with a 17% surge in goods shipments despite uncertainty related to its economic reforms. Vietnam also stood out with a 15% increase in exports compared to the same period in 2023.
Other large economies saw more modest increases, including China (5%) and the United States (3%). Extra-EU exports were up just 1% year-on-year, while exports were down in Japan (-2%) and the United Kingdom (-5%).
Vietnam also had the strongest import growth, with a 17% year-on-year increase, balancing its strong export performance. Other Asian economies saw sharp rises in imports, including Malaysia (13%), Chinese Taipei (9%), and Singapore (7%). The United States saw a 5% rise in imports, while China’s imports were up by only 2%. In contrast, extra-EU imports fell by 5%, and Japan’s imports dropped by 6%. Among other reporting economies, Argentina saw the sharpest decline in imports, which plunged by 22% amidst a continuing economic crisis.
