Global goods trade maintained its positive trajectory in the fourth quarter of 2024 and is projected to continue expanding into early 2025, according to the WTO Goods Trade Barometer.
The barometer registered 102.8, a slight increase from the previous reading of 102.7 in December. This indicates above-trend trade volumes. However, rising trade policy uncertainties and the potential for new tariffs present significant headwinds for medium-term growth.
The WTO Goods Trade Barometer serves as a leading indicator for global merchandise trade, providing real-time insights into trade volume trends. A reading above 100 signifies above-trend growth, while a value below 100 suggests a slowdown.
The current reading of 102.8, exceeding both the quarterly trade volume index and the 100 baseline, typically signals accelerating trade. However, the potential for businesses and consumers to frontload imports in anticipation of future tariffs could distort this picture, potentially leading to reduced demand later in the year. With that, WTO said, the barometer’s current reading should be interpreted with caution.
Official WTO data for the third quarter of 2024 reveals a 3.3% year-on-year growth in global merchandise trade, continuing its recovery from the 2023 slump.
This aligns with the WTO’s October 2024 forecast of 2.7% growth for the full year. While the global average remained stable, regional disparities were evident. European trade underperformed expectations, while Asian exports and North American imports surpassed forecasts.
All component indices of the Goods Trade Barometer are currently at or above the trend. Export orders (101.0), electronic components (102.3), and raw materials (101.6) are performing in line with expectations.
Notably, automotive products (105.5), container shipping (103.7), and air freight (102.7) are exhibiting above-trend performance. Export orders, a key predictive indicator, remain close to the 100 baseline, necessitating close monitoring for signs of an impending slowdown.
