The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for January 2026 global air cargo markets showing a robust 5.6% year-on-year increase in total demand.
While the industry began the year with strong momentum, the results reveal a “polarized” landscape, with significant growth in Africa and the Middle East contrasted by slight contractions across the Americas.
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Total Demand (CTK): Rose 5.6% compared to January 2025 (+7.2% for international operations).
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Total Capacity (ACTK): Increased by 3.6% compared to January 2025 (+5.7% for international operations).
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Market Sentiment: The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.8, crossing the expansion threshold for the first time in over 18 months.
The start of 2026 saw a sharp divide between Eastern and Western hemispheres:
| Region | Demand Growth (YoY) | Capacity Growth (YoY) | Notable Trend |
| Africa | +18.2% | +6.5% | Strongest growth globally. |
| Middle East | +9.3% | +9.9% | Highest capacity increase. |
| Asia-Pacific | +7.8% | +3.3% | Remains the primary engine of expansion. |
| Europe | +6.9% | +4.9% | Outperforming the global average. |
| North America | -0.5% | -0.2% | Only region to see a capacity decrease. |
| Latin America | -2.0% | +2.3% | Weakest demand performance. |
“The demand for air cargo had a robust start to 2026,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “However, at the regional level, the story is more polarized. While Africa, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and Europe reported faster growth than the global average, carriers in the Americas reported aggregate contractions.”
Walsh noted that the industry’s resilience faces upcoming hurdles: “In addition to long-running uncertainties regarding evolving US trade policies, the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East will weigh heavily on global supply chains. These topics add extra weight to the upcoming World Cargo Symposium in Lima, Peru (10-12 March 2026), where we will focus on strengthening adaptability through digitalization.”
Several macroeconomic factors supported the January results:
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Global Goods Trade: Grew by 4.9% in December 2025, providing a strong carry-over effect into the new year.
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Operating Costs: Jet fuel prices decreased by 6.5% year-on-year in January, offering some relief to carriers.
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Export Orders: The PMI for new export orders climbed to 49.9, the highest in 10 months, signaling a cautiously optimistic outlook for industrial growth despite remaining just below the expansion threshold.
