The International Air Transport Association (IATA) today announced global passenger demand data for January 2026, highlighting a resilient start to the year. Despite a calendar shift in holiday travel, the industry achieved a record-high load factor for the month, signaling continued efficiency and appetite for air travel.
Global passenger markets showed consistent growth, with international travel leading the expansion:
| Market | Demand (RPK) | Capacity (ASK) | Load Factor |
| Total Market | +3.8% | +3.5% | 82.0% (+0.2 ppt) |
| International | +5.9% | +5.8% | 82.5% (+0.1 ppt) |
| Domestic | +0.1% | -0.4% | 81.2% (+0.4 ppt) |
The year-on-year growth figures were notably impacted by the timing of the Lunar New Year, which shifted from January in 2025 to February in 2026. Because this holiday typically triggers a massive spike in regional and international travel, the comparison makes January 2026 appear artificially subdued. Despite this, the total load factor of 82.0% represents a record high for the month of January.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, noted that while the calendar shift slightly slowed the expansion rate, the industry’s trajectory remains upward.
“The fundamentals are in place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026,” Walsh said. “Schedule data indicate a 5.2% increase in global seat capacity by March, which would be the fastest expansion since April 2024. However, events over the weekend have introduced some uncertainty regarding traffic and fuel costs. We hope for an early peaceful resolution to current hostilities and remind states of their obligation to keep civil aviation free from harm.”
While average fares are projected to fall in real terms throughout 2026, IATA cautioned that rising operational hurdles are mounting. Walsh highlighted three specific areas of concern:
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Rising Infrastructure Charges: Increasing costs for airport and air traffic services.
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Regulatory Burdens: Growing compliance costs and “onerous” new mandates.
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The Energy Transition: The significant financial investment required for the industry’s decarbonization goals.
Walsh further observed that 2025 saw the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999, calling it a “canary in the coal mine” for global competition. “To protect and enhance the consumer benefits of connectivity, these cost and regulatory issues must be addressed by governments worldwide,” he added.
