IATA warns 2026 SAF production figures signal “Disappointing Year,” urges governments to fix flawed energy strategies

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its latest global Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production estimates for 2026, projecting volumes to reach approximately 2.4 million tonnes.

While representing a continued incremental increase, this volume will account for a mere 0.8% of total global aviation fuel use this year, costing airlines an estimated $4.3 billion.

With the industry committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, IATA warned that the current trajectory is falling dangerously short due to ineffective government policies and a distinct lack of engagement from major oil companies.

“It looks to be another disappointing year for SAF production,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “Five years after committing to achieve net zero by 2050, SAF production will only account for 0.8% of airline fuel use this year.”

“The path to meeting 65% of our needs in 2050 is growing more difficult with each year of ineffectively sequenced government policies and oil companies’ manifest lack of interest. The current energy shock should add even more urgency to the development of renewables, including SAF. But we have yet to see either the energy shock, the need to develop energy independence and jobs, or the urgency to mitigate climate change materialize in the incentives needed to create a viable SAF market.”

To accelerate production and establish a viable, global marketplace, IATA is calling on governments and energy stakeholders to collaborate across four key priority areas:

1. Expand Renewable Energy Supply: Increase the broader baseline of renewable energy to underpin SAF manufacturing and guarantee the availability of clean power and sustainable feedstocks.

2. Ensure Open Infrastructure Access: Allow fair competition and efficient distribution by guaranteeing open access to critical fuel infrastructure, including pipelines, storage facilities, and airport fuel delivery systems.

3. Strengthen Policy Support: Focus on effective policy sequencing by introducing production incentives and stable investment frameworks to reduce risk before enforcing mandates.

4. Enable a Global SAF Market: Build a high-volume, commercially viable market that protects airline financial stability. A trusted “book-and-claim” system is essential to connect buyers and sellers globally regardless of geographic location, backed by harmonized international standards.

The e-SAF Reality Check The press release also highlights critical roadblocks facing electro-SAF (e-SAF), a power-to-liquid (PtL) synthetic fuel requiring massive amounts of renewable electricity, green hydrogen, and captured CO2.

While the European Union and the United Kingdom have legislated ambitious mandates requiring roughly 0.6 million tonnes of e-SAF by 2030, current global operational and under-construction capacity stands at a staggering 0.02 million tonnes—sourced from just a single operating site. Reaching the 2030 mandate would require the immediate construction of approximately 20 commercial-scale refineries. Compounding the crisis, no new final investment decisions for e-SAF facilities were made over the past year.

“The 2030 e-SAF targets by the UK and the EU are beyond unrealistic – they are utterly detached from reality,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist. “It is a reckless energy market creation strategy to impose mandates before production is enabled. Such a strategy will only drive up the price. Coupled with penalties, it diverts scarce resources from being allocated to actual CO2 emissions reductions. The strategy is also bewildering given that Europe has the highest renewable energy prices in the world. A serious strategy would first scale renewable energy production to drive its price down and build the e-SAF production capacity on sound economics. Only at that point can mandates achieve the desired results.”

The urgent need for structural energy reform is strongly reinforced by consumer sentiment. IATA’s April 2026 passenger survey reveals robust public alignment with the industry’s climate goals:

• 89% of passengers believe aviation must continue reducing emissions regardless of whether governments scale back their own climate commitments.

• 89% view flying as an essential liberty that must be made sustainable, rather than restricted through artificial limits or travel curbs.

• 66% of travelers state they are willing to pay more to compensate for their flight emissions, and 88% anticipate ticket prices will rise to fund sustainability investments.

• Real Solutions vs. Taxes: Passengers heavily favor tangible decarbonization technology, with 25% prioritizing funding directly for SAF and 23% for emissions-reduction tech, compared to just 10% who favor environmental taxes.

Sustainability is actively reshaping passenger habits: 48% of travelers now check carbon emissions when booking flights. Among those consumers, over 85% say it actively dictates their final booking decision, and 75% express a clear preference for airlines demonstrating superior environmental performance.

The mandate from global passengers is undeniable: air transport must decarbonize, and consumers are prepared to support the transition. However, without a drastic overhaul of government policy frameworks to incentivize supply rather than penalize scarcity, the aviation industry faces an artificial supply bottleneck that threatens both economic stability and climate targets.