Philippine agriculture is projected to post flat growth this year after recording its strongest growth in five years in 2025, although emerging opportunities in export, climate-smart and high-value agriculture could help offset risks facing the sector.
Marie Annette Dacul, Executive Director of the University of Asia and the Pacific Center for Food and Agri Business (UA&P-CFA), said the agri-food research institution projects agricultural growth to be only -0.5 percent to 0.5 percent this year from 3.1 percent in 2025.
She said last year’s performance was observed to be a recovery rather than a productivity breakthrough, with growth driven by better weather, improved market conditions, and a rebound of key commodities following their 2024 decline.
“Overall, the outlook (this year) suggests a mixed performance across sub-sectors, wherein poultry and livestock (are) supporting growth while crops and fisheries (are) under pressure,” Dacul said during midyear food and agribusiness conference organized by UA&P-CFA.
She added crop production is expected to remain below compared to last year’s level due to high production costs and weather uncertainty, while the fisheries sector will continue to face challenges from climate variability and rising operating costs given high fuel costs.
Dacul identified four major risks threatening the agribusiness supply chain –environmental or climate, economic, pathological and systemic– including climate-related disasters, sustained high input costs, persistent pests and diseases, and susceptibility to geopolitical shocks.
“But these challenges at the same time are creating new opportunities for transformation,” she said.
Dacul cited six avenues for strategic growth and adaptation which include export opportunities, climate-smart agriculture, digital agriculture, high-value agriculture, agribusiness processing, and logistics modernization.
“As incomes grow around the world, demand for quality, tropical and processed food products also continue to increase. We already have products like bananas, pineapples, coconut products, (and) mangoes. With better quality and processing and marketing, we can actually expand our presence in the global markets,” she said, underscoring the need to target niche global markets for specialized Philippine agricultural products.
On climate-smart agriculture, Dacul said investments in climate-resilient crop varieties, improved irrigation, and better water management can help farmers adapt to climate change and sustain productivity despite increasingly extreme weather.
She also highlighted digital agriculture as a growth opportunity, adding that technologies such as drones, satellite imagery, artificial intelligence and mobile applications are enabling even small and medium-sized farms to improve crop monitoring and connect directly with buyers.
“Another is high-value agriculture. So instead of simply producing more, we should also produce better so there are growing opportunities for crops, fruits, vegetables, coffee, cacao, coconut products, aquaculture as well other high value commodities where farmers can earn more from the same piece of land,” Dacul said.
She added greater investment in value-added agribusiness processing could increase farmers’ incomes, create more jobs, and enable producers to capture a larger share of the value chain.
Dacul further underscored the need to modernize logistics through better cold storage, warehouses and transport systems to reduce post-harvest losses, lower food distribution costs and benefit both farmers and consumers.
