The freight market is increasingly divided between strong AI and semiconductor demand amid softer consumer and e-commerce volumes, according to a report by one of Asia’s largest freight forwarders – Dimerco Express Group.
Based on Dimerco’s August 2026 Asia Pacific Freight Report said manufacturing remained strong bringing the global manufacturing PMI at 52.2, making an 11th consecutive month of expansion in several key markets, including Taiwan at 55.2, Japan at 54.8, India at 54.2 and the United States at 53.9, bringing the global manufacturing PMI at 52.2 in June. Taiwan and Korea air lanes remain tight and transpacific rates ease from July highs.
In Southeast Asia, the report said that the peak season enters with uneven capacity.
For instance, Thailand remains one of the region’s tightest airfreight markets, with capacity tight and rates rising across Asia, Europe and both US coasts. Singapore is experiencing backlog conditions to Europe, while Malaysia’s KUL and PEN gateways remain tight on Asia and US-bound lanes.
India also faces rising airfreight pressure, with tight capacity to Europe and North America. Australia runs counter to the regional trend, with soft capacity and stable air rates across all major lanes.
Rising rates
Ocean freight from Southeast Asia is strengthening as peak-season demand builds. Malaysia, Indonesia and India are seeing tight capacity and rising rates on several Europe and North America routes. Carriers are also introducing peak-season surcharges and general rate increases as vessel utilization rises.
Taiwan airfreight capacity remains tight with rising rates to Asia and both US coasts, driven by continued demand for AI servers, semiconductors and other high-tech products. Europe-bound capacity is more balanced, with stable rates.
South Korea is seeing similar airfreight pressure. Capacity is tight to Asia and the US, while rates are rising across all major corridors. Dimerco reports that load factors on Asia-US lanes have reached approximately 90%, with AI and semiconductor shipments replacing e-commerce as the primary capacity driver.
“What we’re seeing is a market split in two. AI demand out of Taiwan just keeps climbing, while the e-commerce base that carried Europe is gone with the de minimis change,” said Kathy Liu, VP, Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group.
Greater China presents a softer picture. Air capacity from North China and Hong Kong to the US is soft, with rates falling, while South China has ample capacity and stable pricing. Ocean rates from China to the US are also trending downward as the earlier tariff-driven cargo rush fades.
Frontloading fades, but cost floors remain high
The report shows that the frontloading wave ahead of US tariff deadlines has passed its peak. Transpacific rates are declining from July highs, even as seasonal retail replenishment keeps vessel space tight at major gateways.
“The frontloading wave has passed its peak. Transpacific rates are coming off their highs and Europe looks set to follow,” said Ted Chen, Director – Ocean Freight, Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group. “But the cost floor isn’t moving: fuel and canal surcharges won’t fall with demand, so expect cheaper space, not cheaper shipping.”
Dimerco notes that elevated fuel expenses, potential Panama Canal surcharges and Middle East routing risks may prevent total shipping costs from falling in line with base freight rates.
Bottlenecks in EU and North America
European airfreight to Asia is soft with stable rates following changes to the EU’s de minimis exemption. However, air rates from the Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom to both US coasts are rising.
The ocean market is moving in the opposite direction. Transatlantic capacity is at backlog levels from all three European markets, with rising rates and elevated rollover risk caused by vessel bunching in Rotterdam and infrastructure constraints in Hamburg.
North America is also experiencing peak-season pressure. Airfreight is at backlog levels from Chicago to Asia and Europe, while New York-to-Europe capacity is classified as serious. Ocean capacity from Los Angeles is in backlog to both Asia and Europe, while New York-to-Europe space is also at serious levels.
Southern Mexico remains another pressure point, with ocean capacity to Europe and the US East Coast classified as serious and rates rising.
Early booking
Dimerco, which operates across 28 countries, recommends early booking on air lanes from Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore. For ocean freight, shippers should secure space one to two weeks ahead for intra-Asia movements and two to three weeks ahead for Europe and North America.
China-Europe rail remains an alternative, with transit times ranging from 16 to 27 days. However, capacity varies significantly by route, with Chengdu-Tilburg space critically limited and more flexible spot opportunities available from Chongqing.
Shippers should also prepare for monsoon and typhoon disruption, congestion at regional hubs and continued volatility in fuel and war-risk surcharges.
