Global trade is on course to set a new record of over US$35 trillion in 2025, with East Asia and Africa driving the strong gains of 2025 even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs and uneven global demand have slowed momentum later in the year, according to a United Nations report.
The UN Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) final “Global Trade Update” for the year said global trade is expected to grow about 7 percent in 2025, adding USD2.2 trillion to reach a historic high of over USD35 trillion.
Of this total rise, goods are expected to contribute about USD1.5 trillion for about 6 percent growth versus 2024. Services would add around USD750 billion or a nearly 9 percent growth.
East Asia, Africa, and South-South trade were the strongest drivers of global gains. East Asia recorded the strongest export growth over the past year at 9 percent, supported by a 10 percent surge in intra-regional trade, said the Update released this month.
Africa also performed strongly, with imports up 10 percent and exports 6 percent. South-South trade expanded around 8 percent, reflecting deepening economic ties among developing economies.
Among individual economies, China and the Republic of Korea stood out in East Asia, while Brazil and South Africa were key drivers in South America and Africa. India and China also posted some of the strongest growth in services exports, underscoring the growing weight of emerging economies in global trade.
Manufacturing—especially electronics—remains the main engine of growth. Manufacturing grew 10 percent over the year, led by electronics (14%) linked to AI-related demand. Agriculture expanded sharply in the third quarter, with cereals and fruit-and-vegetable exports each rising 11 percent. Automotive trade fell 4 percent, while fossil-fuel trade declined amid lower prices.
Trade in 2025 consistently outpaced global economic growth, reversing the stagnation of 2023–2024. Yet imbalances remain elevated, and friendshoring and nearshoring—trade shifting towards politically aligned or geographically closer partners—strengthened again, reshaping trade patterns.
Looking to 2026, UNCTAD forecasts global trade growth to be more muted as slowing global economic growth, geopolitical fragmentation, continued policy uncertainty, and heightened vulnerability weigh on trade activity.
In addition, rising trade costs contribute to an outlook marked by caution. While import demand in some consumer-driven markets and sectors, such as digital technologies and environmental industries, may provide some support, these factors are unlikely to fully offset weaker economic momentum and rising trade frictions.
“On a more positive note, sentiment toward trade remains broadly supportive in many developing regions, sustaining commitments to increasing openness and investment in cross-border commerce, which could result in further expansion of intra-regional and South-South trade,” the Update said.
