Global air passenger demand still up in March – IATA

Despite travel disruption, total global air passenger demand still managed to grow in March but the sharp 60 percent decline by carriers in the Middle East tempered the growth to a modest 2.1 percent in March compared to the same month last year, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported.

In its Passenger Market Analysis – March 2026 released on April 29, IATA said that total airline capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased 1.7 percent year-on-year while the load factor was at record high of 83.6 percent in March.

International demand though fell 0.6 percent compared to March 2025. Capacity was down -6.2 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.1 percent (+4.7 ppt compared to March 2025). The overall decline in international traffic was led by a -60.8 percent fall in traffic by carriers in the Middle East.

Domestic demand increased 6.5 percent compared to March 2025. Capacity increased 5.6 percent year-on-year. The load factor was 83.0 percent (+0.7 ppt compared to March 2025).

As Middle Easter carriers contracted by more than half, airlines from others regions such broadly maintained or saw accelerated growth.

Domestic traffic growth accelerated slightly in March, supported by double-digit expansions in the Chinese and Brazilian domestic markets, IATA said.

IATA also forecast that global scheduled seat capacity is expected to return to growth in May, following the contraction observed in April.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said that everybody’s watching what’s happening with jet fuel—both supply and pricing.

On the supply side, Walsh forecast of shortages in parts of the world with high dependence on supplies from the Gulf, especially Asia and Europe. And the extraordinarily high cost of jet fuel is increasingly being reflected in ticket prices.

“While this has not impacted March traffic or forward bookings to date, it remains to be seen at what point high prices could start to shift passenger behavior. So far, the summer is shaping up to be a normally busy time for travel. That’s positive news, but airline resilience is being tested and stabilizing the supply and price of fuel is crucial. In the meantime, it’s important for regulators to be prepared to grant airlines some flexibility on slots considering the extraordinary circumstances of airspace capacity restrictions and potential fuel rationing,” said Walsh.