The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for May 2026 global passenger demand, revealing a highly resilient aviation sector navigating significant geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds.
While total global demand fell slightly due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, a record-high passenger load factor (PLF) highlights strong underlying appetite for travel, particularly across Europe, Latin America, and Africa.
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Total Demand (RPK): Down 2.2% globally. However, excluding the Middle East, global demand grew by 0.7%.
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Total Capacity (ASK): Decreased 2.3% year-on-year.
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Record Load Factor: Reached a May record of 83.5% (+0.1 percentage points).
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International Markets: Fell 1.6% overall, but grew by 3.1% when excluding the Middle East. International load factor hit 83.7% (+0.7 ppt).
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Domestic Markets: Contracted 3.1%, primarily driven by isolated market conditions in China and the US.
“Air passenger demand was down 2.2% year-on-year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East. The decline was centered on carriers in the Middle East with a 28.4% year-on-year fall. That’s a significant improvement on the 46.6% decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s resilience. Notably, we also saw year-on-year contractions in demand in both North America and Asia, largely related to domestic market conditions in the US and China.
Overall, May demand still appeared to be largely resilient in the face of high fuel prices and air fares. While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time. Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain and it is likely to take time before the benefit of lower oil prices is reflected in ‘normalized’ jet fuel pricing. In the meantime, airlines who are operating on a 2.0% margin will have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares that attempt to cover elevated fuel costs, said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Regional breakdown: Total air passenger Market (May 2026)
| Region | Demand (RPK YoY %) | Capacity (ASK YoY %) | PLF (Level) | PLF Margin (YoY ppt) |
| Global Market | -2.2% | -2.3% | 83.5% | +0.1 |
| Europe | +2.7% | +1.8% | 85.9% | +0.8 |
| Latin America / Caribbean | +6.1% | +4.6% | 83.4% | +1.2 |
| Africa | +6.6% | +7.0% | 73.7% | -0.3 |
| North America | -0.8% | +0.1% | 82.8% | -0.7 |
| Asia-Pacific | -1.4% | -2.4% | 84.3% | +0.9 |
| Middle East | -28.4% | -23.9% | 75.9% | -4.7 |
International traffic proved robust outside the immediate conflict zone. Most regions posted record-high May load factors:
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Latin America & Africa: Led international growth with substantial demand jumps of 10.5% and 8.9% respectively.
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Europe: Achieved a 3.8% demand increase, bolstered by a notable 15% surge in direct traffic to Asia as airlines shift to more non-stop routing.
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Asia-Pacific: Logged a 1.3% international demand increase. Growth was slightly subdued by domestic constraints, including tighter jet fuel import limits in Vietnam which restricted short-haul intra-Asia capacity.
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North America: Grew a modest 1.0% internationally, maintaining stable load factors.
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Middle East: While international demand fell 28.8% due to the war in Iran, the rate of decline was almost halved compared to April’s contraction, signaling a steady stabilizing trend.
Domestic RPK dropped 3.1% overall. The decline was heavily concentrated in China—impacted by higher fares and a calendar shift of the Dragon Boat Festival into June—and the US, which faced flattening domestic market conditions. Most other global domestic markets achieved moderate growth.
