Latest data from OAG, the world’s leading data platform for the global travel industry, reveals that global airline capacity is projected to reach 504 million seats this month. While this represents a total volume increase, the year-on-year (YoY) growth rate has slowed to 1% compared to April 2025, a notable dip from the previous rolling average of 3%.
The report highlights a complex aviation landscape where domestic surges in Asia and the Pacific are balanced against significant volatility in the Middle East and strategic adjustments by major Western carriers.
The summer season sees a familiar corridor reclaiming its dominance, while domestic markets in the East continue to show resilience:
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Top International Pair: The Spain–UK market has returned to the #1 spot for the summer season, boasting an 8.7% growth YoY to reach 5.1 million seats.
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Domestic Growth Engines: China leads as the fastest-growing domestic market (+4.1% YoY). Australia (+3.8%) and India (+3.4%) also recorded strong capacity gains, with India successfully returning to a growth trajectory.
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The Americas: Major US airlines are maintaining steady growth between 2–4%, primarily through increased flight frequencies. LATAM Airlines Group outperformed the regional average with a robust 6.6% increase in flights.
Flight volumes among the world’s largest airlines show a stark divide this month:
| Carrier | Capacity Trend (YoY) | Primary Driver |
| Cathay Pacific | +15.3% (ASKs) | European/US expansion & longer routings |
| LATAM Group | +6.6% (Flights) | Strong regional demand |
| Singapore Airlines | +4.3% (ASKs) | Steady international recovery |
| British Airways | -1.2% (Freq) | Marginal frequency reduction |
| Qantas | -5.1% (Freq) | Strategic capacity adjustment |
| Air Canada | -7.8% (Freq) | Significant frequency reduction |
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to exert pressure on the industry. The impact is most visible in Available Seat Kilometers (ASKs), with Emirates seeing a 40% decline and Qatar Airways a 31% decline year-on-year.
Furthermore, OAG notes that current schedule data for Middle Eastern carriers—including Etihad—reflects plans filed prior to recent regional shifts and remains highly subject to change. Similarly, Cathay Pacific’s 15.3% ASK increase is partially attributed to the necessity of longer flight paths to avoid restricted airspace, highlighting the operational costs of geopolitical instability.
“While we are seeing a record-setting number of seats in the sky this April, the cooling of the growth rate to 1% is a clear signal of the headwinds facing the industry,” said an OAG spokesperson. “Growth is no longer uniform; it is now defined by domestic strength in markets like China and India, contrasted against the logistical and geopolitical hurdles currently facing Middle Eastern and European hubs.”
