Global goods trade surged by an estimated 12.5% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, putting international trade on course for a record-breaking annual total, according to the latest Global Trade Update published today by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Supported heavily by price inflation and booming demand in high-tech sectors, total global goods trade reached approximately $13.7 trillion in the first half of the year.
The strong performance in H1 2026 was driven by a robust increase in merchandise trade, which added $1.5 trillion in value during the first quarter, alongside a 10.5% increase in commercial services, which contributed an additional $500 billion.
Preliminary nowcasts for the second quarter indicate continued positive momentum, with projected quarter-over-quarter growth of 6% for goods and 2% for services. Barring a sharp economic contraction in the second half of 2026, total annual trade value is set to reach unprecedented levels.
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Sectoral Growth: Trade in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and electric vehicle (EV) technologies led sector-level expansion, with further gains projected through the remainder of the year.
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Impact of Trade Inflation: Value growth significantly outpaced physical trade volumes. Surging energy prices—fueled by shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and regional supply concerns—alongside rising costs for metals and fertilizers, drove global trade inflation to 3.6% in Q1. UNCTAD projects trade inflation to reach 5% in Q2, following a 12-month average exceeding 9%.
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Regional Disparities: East Asia registered the strongest growth worldwide with double-digit quarter-over-quarter expansion. Conversely, all other Asian subregions experienced negative quarterly growth. Africa and the Americas saw import growth outpace export performance.
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Shifting Global Balances: China’s goods trade surplus widened further, while the United States continued to narrow its goods trade deficit. In Europe, the United Kingdom saw its trade deficit widen, while the European Union shifted from a trade surplus into a deficit.
While global trade demonstrates underlying resilience, UNCTAD warns that forward expansion faces increasing headwinds. Growth is expected to become markedly uneven across regions and sectors amid heightened geopolitical tensions, supply chain reconfigurations, and ongoing economic policy uncertainty.
