The Drewry Intra-Asia Container Index (IACI) stabilized at $956 per 40ft container in Week 31, halting a five-week slide. While post-peak seasonal demand continues to exert downward pressure on regional trade lanes, market rates are being counterbalanced by surging fuel costs, Middle East geopolitical tensions, and severe weather bottlenecks across East and South Asian ports.
Although the overall index held steady, spot rates diverged significantly by trade corridor:
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Middle East Route Surge: Spot rates on the Shanghai–Jebel Ali lane rose 6%, driven by heightened security risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Southeast Asia Decline: Fading post-peak demand saw rates fall across key lanes originating in China:
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Shanghai to Jakarta: Down 5% to $1,405 / 40ft container.
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Shanghai to Laem Chabang: Down 4% to $890 / 40ft container.
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Shanghai to Manila: Down 3% to $447 / 40ft container.
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South & Southeast Exports Hold Steady: Outbound rates remained flat on select routes, including Ho Chi Minh City to Shanghai ($65 / 40ft) and Jawaharlal Nehru Port (JNPT) to Shanghai ($117 / 40ft).
Renewed escalation of hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz—highlighted by security incidents involving the Luni and GFS Galaxy—pushed WTI crude oil prices up 24% month-over-month to $84 per barrel in July. In response, ocean carriers are introducing emergency bunker adjustment surcharges ranging from $38 to $75 per TEU on short-haul intra-Asia routes starting early August.
Severe weather is creating major operational backlogs:
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East/South China: The combined impact of Typhoon Noul and Typhoon Bavi has severely disrupted port schedules. At the Port of Shanghai, average vessel wait times spiked from 39 hours in Week 30 to 77 hours in Week 31.
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West Coast India: Heavy monsoon storms surrounding JNPT have caused berth schedule disruptions and lingering vessel backlogs.
In network developments, COSCO expanded its Northeast Asian footprint by joining Yang Ming’s JTS service as a vessel provider. The three-week service rotation enhances connectivity across Japan, Taiwan, and China, with port calls at Nagoya, Tokyo, Yokohama, Keelung, Kaohsiung, Chiwan, and Xiamen.
Drewry expects intra-Asia freight rates to remain largely stable in the coming weeks. The downward pressure from weakening post-peak demand is anticipated to be offset by rising fuel surcharges and ongoing vessel delays. However, any further escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions could disrupt capacity further and potentially trigger rate increases.
