The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) has concluded a six-week rally, signaling a shift in the maritime landscape as the initial shock of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions begins to stabilize.
The index fell 3% to $2,246 per 40ft container this week, reversing a surge triggered by rising bunker fuel prices and supply chain disruptions.
The recent decline is characterized by softening demand and rate corrections across major global trade lanes. Despite the US-led naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz impacting oil supply chains, the immediate “fear factor” in freight pricing appears to be moderating.
Current spot rate performance (per 40ft Container):
| Route | Current Rate | Change |
| Shanghai to New York | $3,552 | ↓ 3% |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles | $2,810 | ↓ 3% |
| Shanghai to Rotterdam | $2,229 | ↓ 3% |
| Shanghai to Genoa | $3,343 | ↓ 2% |
To counter the downward pressure on rates, carriers are actively managing supply. On the Transpacific route, Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight reports nine announced blank sailings for the upcoming week. While rates are currently dipping, several carriers have already signaled a significant Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) of approximately $2,000, slated for implementation on 1 May.
In the Asia–Europe sector, capacity remains higher with only one blank sailing announced to date. While ZIM has introduced a new Bunker Factor (NBF) of $850 effective 1 May, Drewry anticipates that freight rates will remain largely stable in the immediate term.
The situation remains fluid due to the ongoing naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz. While the market is currently experiencing a plateau, Drewry warns that if diplomatic negotiations falter, shippers must prepare for:
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Reduced schedule reliability and potential port omissions.
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Extended lead times for global cargo.
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Renewed upward pressure on freight rates as oil prices remain volatile. “We expect freight rates to remain less volatile in the coming weeks as the market recalibrates,” says Drewry. “However, the industry is holding its breath for the 1 May surcharge implementations, which will likely define the next phase of the 2026 shipping season.”
